Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise adds to reasons for ECB caution Diminishing political risk and early expectations of ECB asset purchase tapering have driven the euro up to around its highest level since before QE began. We think that the single currency will fall... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland not done with rate cuts yet Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland to cut interest rates is likely to be followed by another cut later this year. Granted, strong economic growth will put pressure on domestic inflation... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities forge ahead again Emerging market (EM) equities have had another excellent month, with the MSCI EM Index rising 4% to its highest in almost two years. However, we would not be surprised to see it slip back later this... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The return of Goldilocks Japan’s economy probably recorded the fifth straight quarter of growth in Q1, the longest streak since 2005. The unemployment rate is at multi-year lows and corporate profit margins at record highs... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar unlikely to sink much lower The recent drop in the Canadian dollar to US$0.73, from US$0.75, presumably reflects new fears of a global oil supply glut, which have been weighing on crude oil prices. Although this downward... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Prospects for euro-zone equities brighten Equities in the euro-zone performed better over the past month than those in the US, amid further good news on the region’s economy and the fading of political risk after France’s presidential... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets picked up in April. Outflows will probably accelerate further later this year, but they are likely to remain subdued by recent... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 1992 or 2008? Updated Recent news on the economy might suggest that the effects of the pound’s post-referendum depreciation will be closer to those seen after the pound’s fall in 2008 – which raised inflation and squeezed... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordic & Swiss currencies to rebound from April’s falls After depreciating against the euro in April, we think that the Swiss franc, Swedish krona and Norwegian krone will rebound, but for different reasons. Political risk could yet re-escalate in Europe... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Is the strength of EM currencies set to last? Although they have generally appreciated in recent months, few EM currencies appear much stronger than their “fair value”. This feeds into our view that most will hold up fairly well over the next few... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update French election pushed currencies down and yields up Following Mr Macron’s victory in the first round of the French presidential election, Nordic and Swiss currencies depreciated and government bond yields rose. And dovish comments from policymakers at... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Concerns over regulatory tightening spook investors China’s equity markets saw the biggest fall since 2016 in April after policymakers ramped up their rhetoric on limiting financial risks. Meanwhile, the renminbi has remained stable against the US... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Currencies grab headlines as economies improve April was another dramatic month for African currency markets. The rand fell against the US dollar after the sacking of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan prompted a ratings downgrade, before clawing... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets weather another storm The relative resilience of South African financial markets in the face of the latest political turbulence has prompted us to revise our end of year rand forecast from R15/US$ to $14/US$. Markets... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble strength on policymakers’ radars The continued strength of the Russian ruble this month has started to raise concerns among policymakers, with President Putin hinting that some form of action might be taken to stem the rise. At the... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Devaluation fears fade in the Gulf, Tunisia’s dinar falls Fears that low oil prices would force the Gulf countries to devalue their currencies have continued to fade over the past month. However, one country in the region where the authorities have loosened... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
