Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stresses mid-17 exit from koruna cap still likely Despite mounting speculation that the Czech MPC would hint at removing the koruna cap earlier than previously suggested, today’s MPC press statement was surprisingly dovish. We remain of the view that... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hopes and risks for 2017 The range of possible economic outcomes for next year are wider than usual and it is possible that 2017 proves to be a sweet spot for both Australia and New Zealand. But it seems more likely that a... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Dollar likely to climb even further against the euro and yen We are revising up our forecasts for the US dollar against the euro and the yen to reflect our view that the contrast between the policies of the Fed on the one hand and the ECB and the BoJ on the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira fix will prove unsustainable in 2017 Nigerian policymakers seem committed to the FX policies that have strangled their country’s economy. The situation is, however, unsustainable. We expect that the currency will be devalued again in... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics OPEC deal boosts financial markets in frontier oil exporters Financial markets in frontier oil exporters have performed well over the past month, as oil prices have rallied following the OPEC deal to cut output. Equity markets have perked up. And spreads of... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are exporters squandering the drop in the pound? On the face of it, the early evidence suggests that exporters are using the drop in the pound to boost margins as opposed to market share. This poses a risk to our optimistic forecasts for exports... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Mixed performance in Q3, but surveys bode well for Q4 Recent national accounts data showed a marked divergence in quarterly economic growth in Q3, with the Swiss economy stagnating while the Icelandic economy expanded by an impressive 4.6% q/q. In the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets take Fed rate hike in their stride Financial markets in India have taken last week’s decision by the US Fed to hike interest rates for the first time in a year in their stride. A bigger test might come if the Fed now tightens more... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising oil prices support Russia market rally The rise in oil prices following the agreement by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has helped Russian equities and the ruble to outperform for the second consecutive month. Elsewhere, Polish... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets weather first US rate hike in a year Asian financial markets took last week’s resumption of the US Fed’s tightening cycle in their stride, but bigger tests are likely to come in 2017 if, as we expect, the Fed raises rates further than... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the US stock market in a bubble? Although the S&P 500 has risen to a record high in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, we do not think that it is in a bubble. Admittedly, its price/earnings ratio is now about double the long-run... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More cause for optimism but price pressures grow This week has brought further indications that the Government is leaning towards a soft(ish) form of Brexit and some sort of transitional arrangement. Meanwhile, the economy has continued to hold up... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies and equities to weather Fed hikes Latin America’s financial markets have largely shrugged off yesterday’s US interest rate hike, as well as upward revisions to Fed officials’ rate projections – currencies and dollar bonds have made... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf financial markets find support from higher oil prices The rise in oil prices following the recent OPEC deal to cut output has supported financial markets across the Gulf over the past month. Stock markets have perked up and spreads of dollar bonds over... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to expect in 2017 and beyond Donald Trump’s surprise win in the Presidential election has introduced uncertainty across a number of policy dimensions, but the likelihood of a significant fiscal stimulus next year points to a pick... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia holds rates, currency worries to remain a constraint Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.75% today demonstrates the central bank’s focus remains on supporting the rupiah. With interest rates in the US likely to rise... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
