Emerging Europe Economics Update Dissecting Russia’s new fiscal rule Russia’s new “fiscal rule”, which takes effect this week, is unusual insofar as it governs how the budget deficit is financed, rather than anchoring either the size of the deficit or the scale of... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany address its “grossly undervalued” currency? The accusation by US policymakers that Germany’s currency is “grossly undervalued” is partly justified. Indeed, while the euro’s current low level seems warranted by economic fundamentals in the... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets eye up interest rate hike in 2018 With all eyes on sterling, one somewhat overlooked development over the past month has been the increase in markets’ expectations for official interest rates. Indeed, on the basis of overnight indexed... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies make a strong start to the year The Nordic and Swiss currencies have generally strengthened this month, albeit for different reasons. This is a trend that we expect to continue this year. 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Big frontiers eye up more international bond sales 2016 was a bumper year for dollar bond sales from frontier markets and the recent pull-back in US Treasury yields has prompted a number of countries to consider returning to international markets... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian financial markets make good start to 2017 Asian currencies have rebounded against the US dollar over the past month, with the Korean won leading the way. For the most part, the recent gains reflect a weak dollar, which has fallen in value... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira caught in the crosshairs The sharp fall in the Turkish lira already this year, and the disappointing response by the central bank, have prompted us to revise our currency forecast down. We now see it ending the year at 4.00/$... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi rebounds against dollar as PBOC tightens controls The renminbi appreciated against the US currency this month for the first time since October, helped by a tightening of capital controls. But in trade-weighted terms, the Chinese currency has been... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No signs yet of major stress in Mexican markets Financial conditions in Mexico have tightened over recent months, partly reflecting the central bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes in response to the falls in the peso. But there are no signs yet... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government gets the ball rolling on Brexit bill While the Supreme Court decision won’t prevent Brexit from happening, it has perhaps increased the chance that Theresa May’s timeline for triggering Article 50 will slip and/or that there could be... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Q4 data point to pick-up in GDP growth On the whole, the activity data suggest that GDP growth in the Nordic and Swiss economies has picked up. Granted, Icelandic consumer confidence suggests that growth might have slowed slightly. But it... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What chance of a Trump Accord? For now, we don’t know what the US policy will be towards the dollar. If Donald Trump seriously wants a cheaper currency, the best way to achieve it might be through a multilateral agreement... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the dollar really “very, very strong”? The dollar has ceded ground recently amid speculation that the Trump administration will seek to bring it down. Indeed, the new president’s nomination for Secretary of the Treasury has reportedly... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA sovereigns line up dollar bond sales The recent pull-back in US Treasury yields has prompted several MENA sovereigns to push ahead with their plans to issue dollar debt. With the Fed likely to hike interest rates more aggressively in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Pound welcomes May’s Brexit plans The unveiling of the Government’s broad plans for Brexit helped to drive the pound higher this week. However, this probably largely reflects a slight reduction in uncertainty, rather than optimism... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook How will markets deal with President Trump? We expect monetary policy in the US to be tightened by more than investors seem to be anticipating, but agree that in other major developed economies it is likely to remain very loose. With this in... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
