India Economics Update Bond yields jump after RBI surprises markets Indian bond yields have risen since the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets in early February by keeping rates on hold and signalling the end of its loosening cycle. Looking ahead, yields are... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rebound in Argentine peso unlikely to be sustained The recent strength of the Argentine peso, which has been the best-performing currency in Latin America so far this month, has led some to suggest that the worst is over for the currency. However, the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does the rally in the ruble have further to run? There doesn’t appear to be any strong justification for the 5% appreciation of the ruble against the dollar this month and we think the currency will revert to its historic relationship with global... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Le Pen’s new French franc rise or fall? We think that a new French franc would fall sharply against the euro if Marine Le Pen became President and took France out of the single currency. While the likelihood of these events is low, it is... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update President Trump has little power over currency markets The new US administration has made a lot of noise about currencies during its first few weeks. But there is little chance of it engineering a move away from the system of free-floating exchange rates... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: what to make of the pound’s recent rally? Weaker import demand and a pick-up in foreign investment have pushed the Egyptian pound up by 15% against the US dollar in the past couple of weeks, and we think the rally may have a little further to... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Coping with higher inflation Growth in household spending is likely to slow over the next few years as inflation rises and dampens growth in real incomes. But loose credit conditions and relatively upbeat sentiment by past... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to maintain dovish tone for now Recent economic data support our view that the Riksbank will raise interest rates this year. But given the recent appreciation of the krona, the Riksbank is likely to maintain a very dovish tone in... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Recent recovery likely to prove a false dawn Financial markets in the emerging world have maintained their strong start to the year. But we don’t expect this to be sustained, as the Fed resumes its tightening and geo-political uncertainty... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the US need a strong or weak dollar? We will probably never know whether President Donald Trump really did phone his National Security adviser at 3am to ask whether a strong or weak dollar was good for the economy, but it is a very good... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Jan.) China’s foreign exchange reserves are now worth less than $3trn for the first time since 2011. That said, they remain sufficiently large not to warrant any immediate concerns over the sustainability... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss National Bank tolerating a stronger franc? The recent appreciation of the Swiss franc suggests that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may now be willing to tolerate a (slightly) stronger currency. But we see the franc rising even further to reach... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Are investors being complacent? The financial markets have been very calm since Donald Trump entered the White House, despite the controversy surrounding his provocative executive orders and tweets. While this probably reflects the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Moroccan dirham to rise once central bank loosens its grip The spotlight in the region’s currency markets over the past couple of years has been on the threat of large devaluations but, as we explain in this Focus, the risks in Morocco appear to lie in the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish statement suggests Czech koruna policy to end soon The upwards revisions to the Czech National Bank’s inflation forecasts and the relatively hawkish post-meeting press conference reinforce our view that the Council’s koruna cap policy will end fairly... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to be unchanged despite króna’s fall The króna has depreciated fairly sharply since the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) last met. But given our expectation that it will rise again, we do not think the Bank will respond to recent currency... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
