Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Will the strength of the rupee be sustained? Strong inflows into India’s equity and bond markets have been a key reason behind the strengthening of the rupee against the US dollar in recent months. But there are reasons to think that these... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in bond yields has further to run The rise in Indian bond yields over the past couple of weeks reverses only a small portion of the drop since the start of 2017. But looking ahead, with the RBI ramping up its open market sales and... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Remittance slowdown a big risk to South Asia A fall in remittances to Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka is a big concern for these economies. If sustained, it could cause growth to weaken and put their currencies under downward pressure. 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s slide against the euro likely to be partly reversed In contrast to a number of other forecasters who have suggested that the pound could reach parity with the euro before the end of the year, we think that there are a number of reasons for the pound to... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Sterling’s slide against the euro continues Sterling has fallen by 7.5% against the euro since mid-May. The fall comes despite relative interest rate expectations pointing to a strengthening of the pound against the single currency. But while... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What does the crisis in Korea mean for the markets? Financial markets in Korea and the rest of Emerging Asia have fallen in response to the latest increase in tensions on the Korean peninsula. However, given the scale of the risks involved, the falls... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria really moving to a unified exchange rate? The Nigerian authorities’ decision to allow commercial banks to quote a floating exchange rate, rather than the less-frequently used official rate has been interpreted by some as a move towards a... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation genie remains in its bottle Japan’s economy probably recorded the sixth quarter of uninterrupted GDP growth in Q2 and the outlook for the third quarter is positive. In fact, the economy remains on track to enjoy the longest... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to markets: Forget about rate hikes Graeme Wheeler didn’t go out with a bang at his last policy meeting as Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as interest rates were left at 1.75% for the ninth month in a row. But he stressed... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will EM equities’ valuations continue to climb? The latest surge in emerging market (EM) equities has seen the price/12 month forward earnings ratio of the MSCI EM Index climb further above its long-run average. Nonetheless, we still think that... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Sharp rise in euro weighs on equities The euro has risen sharply over the past month and in early August reached its highest level against the US dollar since early 2015. Strikingly, the rise has occurred against a backdrop of broadly... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Rational exuberance We don’t think that the valuations of many risky assets have become unsustainably high. This is because their rise has been supported by a structural decline in real interest rates, which is likely to... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities rapid rise continues Equity markets in Asia continued their rise in July. Meanwhile, currencies in the region generally strengthened against the US dollar 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Big gains for Turkish equities behind us The surge in Turkish equities earlier this year appears to have been aided by improvements in the real economy, but the more recent rise has been due to global risk appetite. There is scope for... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
