India Economics Update Rupee surges to 20-month high The rally in the Indian rupee since the start of 2017 has continued in recent weeks, driving the currency to its highest rate against the US dollar in almost two years. While we doubt that the rally... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling welcomes May’s election call The Prime Minister’s call for a snap General Election saw the pound surge higher despite expectations for future interest rates remaining more or less unchanged, having fallen over the preceding month... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus “Overvalued” Swiss franc may rise further While conventional metrics give some support to the Swiss National Bank’s view that the franc is “significantly overvalued”, the evidence from the economy implies that it is not. What’s more, we think... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price expectations too weak to reach 2% inflation The labour market continues to tighten and firms are reporting the most severe capacity shortages in years. Underlying inflation is therefore set to recover after approaching zero at the start of this... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: export-driven recovery looking good…for now Brazilian export growth looks set to rebound this year as the impact of last year’s drought on agricultural shipments fades. This should help to finally pull the economy out of recession. That being... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Mar.) China’s foreign exchange reserves were broadly stable last month, suggesting that the recent easing of capital outflows has allowed the People’s Bank to step back from FX intervention. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CZK moves to managed float, further appreciation likely Despite what looks like heavy FX intervention by the Czech National Bank upon the exit from the koruna ceiling policy earlier today, comments from Governor Rusnok suggest that the Bank will tolerate... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for bonds and currencies We have revised some of our forecasts for developed market government bonds and exchange rates to take account of current market levels and our latest thinking on monetary policy. We now project a... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sharp currency depreciations in Norway and Iceland Market movements across the Nordic and Swiss economies were fairly limited in March. The main exceptions were in the currency market, with both the Norwegian krone and Icelandic króna recording sharp... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Currencies and equities record further gains Asian currencies have gained ground against the US dollar over the past month as investors have pushed back their expectations on the number of interest rate rises in the US this year. Most Asian... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian bond yields set to come down Russia’s bond market hardly moved in reaction to the central bank’s surprise re-start of its easing cycle last week. However, we think the policy rate will ultimately be lowered much further than... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are Asian countries manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report this month which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. No country in Emerging Asia meets the criteria... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers playing catch-up after de facto devaluation Recent reforms to Nigeria’s FX regime have further complicated an already convoluted system, which includes a variety of exchange rates. In this Watch, we provide an overview of the state of the FX... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Out of the woods? Evidence of a sharp turnaround in growth and policymakers’ success in preventing a destabilising slide in the renminbi have underpinned a dramatic shift in sentiment towards China. But there are good... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The MPC’s sterling conundrum The Monetary Policy Committee might be relieved to see the pound regaining a bit of ground in recent weeks. But it shouldn’t want the exchange rate to rise too far. 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise not a threat to the recovery The euro’s rise against the US dollar over the past few weeks has probably reflected speculation of ECB tapering, as well as perceptions of diminished political risk in the currency union. We doubt... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
