China Economics Update Renminbi jumps as fixing mechanism changes China’s markets were left unfazed by the ratings downgrade last week. But there have been some sizeable gains since then in the renminbi as policymakers have signalled their determination to prevent... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies rise against dollar while bond yields decline The Nordic and Swiss currencies all appreciated against the US dollar in May, but performances against the euro were mixed. Following global trends, government bond yields generally declined. While... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Rand driven by politics, most markets strengthen South Africa’s ongoing political drama caused the rand to wobble this month, but the currency soon stabilised. Equities across the region performed well, with Nigerian stocks leading the charge. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Temer fallout contained, but yield curve steepens Brazil’s financial markets sold off sharply in the immediate aftermath of the latest corruption allegations against President Temer, with equities, the currency and bonds all coming under pressure... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s currencies outperform Currencies in Central Europe have been the best performing in the emerging world over the past month and we think that they should generally fare well in the coming years. 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC tightens the renminbi’s leash The change in the renminbi fixing mechanism announced today shouldn’t rattle markets, not least because it appears to be an attempt to strengthen rather than weaken the currency. It suggests though... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Buoyant euro-zone will help the SNB fight franc strength Given the improvement in the euro-zone’s political and economic outlook and the relative stance of monetary policy, we no longer expect the Swiss franc to appreciate against the euro. But the franc... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s Brexit recovery can go further While the pound could fall again if the economy weakens or Brexit prospects worsen, there are good reasons to think that its recent appreciation can continue. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Economic prospects to maintain support for the euro The euro’s recent appreciation against the US dollar appears to reflect better prospects for euro-zone growth and has occurred despite expectations that ECB monetary policy will remain very loose... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) After a sharp decline at the start of the year, net capital outflows have crept up again recently. Unless we witness another misstep on exchange rate policy though, outflow pressure should remain... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Sensex continues to surge Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting a fresh all-time high in mid-May. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise adds to reasons for ECB caution Diminishing political risk and early expectations of ECB asset purchase tapering have driven the euro up to around its highest level since before QE began. We think that the single currency will fall... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland not done with rate cuts yet Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland to cut interest rates is likely to be followed by another cut later this year. Granted, strong economic growth will put pressure on domestic inflation... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities forge ahead again Emerging market (EM) equities have had another excellent month, with the MSCI EM Index rising 4% to its highest in almost two years. However, we would not be surprised to see it slip back later this... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The return of Goldilocks Japan’s economy probably recorded the fifth straight quarter of growth in Q1, the longest streak since 2005. The unemployment rate is at multi-year lows and corporate profit margins at record highs... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar unlikely to sink much lower The recent drop in the Canadian dollar to US$0.73, from US$0.75, presumably reflects new fears of a global oil supply glut, which have been weighing on crude oil prices. Although this downward... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
