Europe Economics Update Would Italian politicians really pull Italy out of the euro? Italy’s general election in March looks likely to produce a fragmented government with eurosceptic tendencies. We don’t think that it will pull Italy out of the euro-zone, but it may cause yields to... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s strength not yet a major concern The main news for the euro-zone economy at the year’s outset has been the further appreciation of the euro. While this might seem like a major headwind to the economy’s upturn, we remain optimistic... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook Unsurprisingly December’s uneventful Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting barely caused a ripple in financial markets, leaving market participants’ expectations for future interest rates all but... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Nearing full employment Japan’s economy will expand the most this year since 2013. Yet the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further since the start of the year. This isn’t due to a surge in productivity that has reduced... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2018 We expect Japan’s GDP growth to slow next year as the economy is now operating above capacity. Price and wage pressures should strengthen somewhat but inflation will remain well below the Bank of... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM currencies do not appear overvalued Although EM currencies are much stronger on average against the dollar now than they were at the start of 2017, most of them still do not appear significantly overvalued. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB sits tight as franc still seen as “highly valued” The Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and intervene in the currency markets as... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What does 2018 have in store for developed markets? We think that investors are still underestimating the extent to which the Fed will tighten policy next year. As a result, we forecast that the dollar and Treasury yields will rise in 2018. We don’t... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Buoyant economy to prompt only minor change in tone Having announced a plan to buy assets at a reduced pace of €30bn per month from January until September 2018 after its last meeting, the ECB seems very unlikely to make any changes this month. It... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to sit tight as ECB taper eases pressure on franc Although the Swiss franc has weakened further over the past three months, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will sound any more relaxed about the exchange rate in its policy statement next... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan follow the Fed and the ECB? A long period of sustained economic growth has helped drive unemployment in Japan to its lowest level in nearly a quarter of a century. Nonetheless, inflation and wage growth are both barely positive... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia losing its interest rate premium The narrowing in Australia’s interest rate premium highlighted by the rise in two-year government bond yields in the US in line with two-year yields in Australia for the first time in almost 20 years... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set to hike rates despite worries over won Concern over the recent strength of the won is unlikely to stop the Bank of Korea (BoK) from hiking interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, but it is likely to prompt the authorities into resuming... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate further in 2018 We expect economic growth in most countries in Latin America to accelerate further in 2018. Of the region’s major economies, we anticipate a pick-up in growth next year in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank recapitalisation pushes equities to fresh highs The surge in Indian equities since the start of the year has continued over the past month, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early November. The latest leg up has been... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
