EM Valuations Monitor Should we worry about low EM credit spreads? Following a long-lasting decline, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have rarely been much lower than they are now since the financial crisis. This does not mean that they are bound to pick up any... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities, renminbi rise on state intervention Chinese equities ended June at a two-month high, likely supported by state buying. Increased intervention by officials also appears to have been responsible for the renminbi’s recent appreciation... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian financial crisis twenty years on There are more differences than similarities between the situation now and the position many Asian countries found themselves in on the eve of the Asian financial crisis 20 years ago. But there is no... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for the ruble and lira We have revised our forecasts for the Russian ruble and Turkish lira and we now expect a smaller rise in the ruble versus the dollar by the end of next year. We also now think future falls in the lira... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro continue to climb? We think that the euro’s latest rise against the US dollar was a justified reaction to Mario Draghi’s hints that QE will be tapered early next year, despite warnings from the ECB that the comments... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rally in Canadian dollar may have run its course Despite hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada, we don’t expect the rally in the Canadian dollar to go much further. Given signs of a correction in the housing market, we doubt that the BoC will... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets unperturbed by political and interest rate risks The surprise outcome of the General Election and the MPC’s unexpectedly tight vote on interest rates have triggered only a muted market reaction. Admittedly, trade-weighted sterling fell to its lowest... 19th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China awaits damp squib of MSCI inclusion MSCI will announce on Tuesday whether it will include China’s domestically-listed A-shares in its benchmark indices. It has chosen not to in the past on concerns over market access and official... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Scope for further interest rate cuts in Iceland There is little sign that the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) expects to reduce interest rates further after today’s cut, but we think there is scope for a further appreciation of the króna to weigh on... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack How long will the rally in EM bonds continue? Emerging market (EM) sovereign and corporate bond yields have fallen steadily so far this year, but we doubt that this will continue for much longer. 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Consumer revival underway The recovery in Japan’s economy since early last year has mostly been driven by a surge in exports, but Japanese consumers also seem to be joining the party. Consumer spending is on track for another... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to keep policy loose to support inflation’s rise The Swiss National Bank will once again stress after its meeting on 15th June that it remains prepared to act to prevent any significant renewed appreciation of the Swiss franc. Granted, the recent... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (May) The latest rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves suggests that the People’s Bank (PBOC) became net buyer of FX for the first time in well over a year last month. This reflects an easing of capital... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Equities will struggle to make further headway Stock markets have shrugged off the uncertainty created by Brexit, with the FTSE 100 rising by 19% since the EU referendum last year. However, the key supports of the rally have now faded. First, the... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor How stretched are the valuations of EM equities? Emerging market equities have continued to climb over the past month. Their rise has been partly fuelled by an increase in earnings. Valuations have also picked up, although they still do not look... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities continue strong run Asian equity markets have outperformed other EM markets over the past month, with bourses in Korea, India, Pakistan and Indonesia all reaching record highs in May. We are revising our equity forecasts... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
