Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss franc really overvalued? Although the franc has strengthened in recent weeks, the big picture is that the currency is over 5% weaker than this time a year ago. Currency valuation measures paint a mixed picture but our view is... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rethinking the yen The yen has strengthened in recent months even though investors are now anticipating a more aggressive pace of tightening by the US Fed. While we expect US long-term interest rates to end this year a... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers pushing back on renminbi Today’s sharp move in the renminbi underlines the extent to which policymakers are keen to prevent the emergence of strong speculative pressures on the currency. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro’s support now looks set to last While US interest rate expectations for this year have risen into line with our own, this has not undermined the euro as we had anticipated. Instead, markets have focused on the strength of the euro... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No swan song for the dollar We are abandoning our expectation that the dollar will have a last hurrah this year. We had previously expected it to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies, as the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to test the water soon with change of language With the Riksbank on track to raise interest rates this year, it is likely to test the water soon by dropping its pledge to loosen policy further if necessary. But as inflation expectations in Sweden... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB unlikely to let franc’s rise be sustained The franc’s downward trend went into reverse last month and turbulence in global financial markets has since threatened to push it up further. In the event of a sustained rout in equity markets, the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sell-off underlines markets’ previous complacency The severity of any further sell-off in global financial markets may be limited by the general health of the global economy and the scope for policymakers to respond if necessary. Nonetheless, the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the recent decline in EM credit spreads justified? The stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global (which is comprised of sovereign dollar-denominated bonds) has continued to fall this year, and has rarely been lower in the post-financial crisis era... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Global forces push exchange rates and bond yields up Following developments in other developed economies this year, Nordic and Swiss currencies have appreciated while equity prices and bond yields have risen. Norway’s currency has outperformed, largely... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi close to high-water mark The renminbi has now reversed all of its losses against the dollar since the day of the botched exchange rate reform in August 2015. We remain upbeat about the currency’s medium-term prospects but... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is there more to the gold rally than a weak dollar? Our analysis shows that dollar weakness can explain much of the recent strength in the price of gold. As such, given our view that the US currency will appreciate this year, we think that those gains... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Jan.) Despite January’s sharp fall in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, the indicator is still broadly consistent with annual GDP growth picking up to around 2%. With exporters benefiting from a weaker... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can the sterling rally continue? There are some reasons to think that the pound’s recent rally may struggle to go much further. Rising US interest rates could prompt something of a recovery in the ailing dollar, while Brexit... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Thailand do about the “strong” baht? The Thai authorities are becoming increasingly concerned by the strength of the baht, which has been one of the best performing emerging market currencies over the past year. The most likely policy... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
