UK Economics Update Sterling’s slide against the euro likely to be partly reversed In contrast to a number of other forecasters who have suggested that the pound could reach parity with the euro before the end of the year, we think that there are a number of reasons for the pound to... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Sterling’s slide against the euro continues Sterling has fallen by 7.5% against the euro since mid-May. The fall comes despite relative interest rate expectations pointing to a strengthening of the pound against the single currency. But while... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What does the crisis in Korea mean for the markets? Financial markets in Korea and the rest of Emerging Asia have fallen in response to the latest increase in tensions on the Korean peninsula. However, given the scale of the risks involved, the falls... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria really moving to a unified exchange rate? The Nigerian authorities’ decision to allow commercial banks to quote a floating exchange rate, rather than the less-frequently used official rate has been interpreted by some as a move towards a... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation genie remains in its bottle Japan’s economy probably recorded the sixth quarter of uninterrupted GDP growth in Q2 and the outlook for the third quarter is positive. In fact, the economy remains on track to enjoy the longest... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to markets: Forget about rate hikes Graeme Wheeler didn’t go out with a bang at his last policy meeting as Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as interest rates were left at 1.75% for the ninth month in a row. But he stressed... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will EM equities’ valuations continue to climb? The latest surge in emerging market (EM) equities has seen the price/12 month forward earnings ratio of the MSCI EM Index climb further above its long-run average. Nonetheless, we still think that... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Sharp rise in euro weighs on equities The euro has risen sharply over the past month and in early August reached its highest level against the US dollar since early 2015. Strikingly, the rise has occurred against a backdrop of broadly... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Rational exuberance We don’t think that the valuations of many risky assets have become unsustainably high. This is because their rise has been supported by a structural decline in real interest rates, which is likely to... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities rapid rise continues Equity markets in Asia continued their rise in July. Meanwhile, currencies in the region generally strengthened against the US dollar 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Big gains for Turkish equities behind us The surge in Turkish equities earlier this year appears to have been aided by improvements in the real economy, but the more recent rise has been due to global risk appetite. There is scope for... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strains in Qatar’s markets ease There is growing evidence that the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers has (at least temporarily) hurt Qatar’s economy, but there are also signs that tensions in the country’s... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A strong month for local markets Most African currencies and equity markets gained a bit of ground in July. Mozambique – where debt worries deepened – was a rare exception. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi strengthens further against US dollar The Hong Kong dollar has continued to slide against the US dollar in recent weeks and may soon run into the buffers of the HKMA’s exchange rate band. The renminbi, by contrast, has been appreciating... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Mixed performances for Nordic and Swiss currencies After fairly big rises in yields in June, July was a quieter month for Nordic & Swiss government bonds. There was more action in the currency market, with the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona rising... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
