Latin America Economics Update Emergency rate hike fails to shore up Argentine peso The Argentine central bank’s interest rate hike at an unscheduled meeting on Friday has provided little relief for the peso, which is down by another 2.5% against the dollar today. Against a backdrop... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations should limit weakness in EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have continued to slip against the dollar, probably in large part due to rising bond yields in the US and a global increase in risk aversion. We suspect that US... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Swiss and Nordic currencies recoup their losses? The Swiss franc and Nordic currencies have come under pressure this year. While we think that the franc and the Norwegian krone have further to fall, we suspect that the Swedish krona will rebound. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What next for the Aussie and kiwi dollars? The recent weakening in the Australian and New Zealand dollars probably has a bit further to go and the big risks still lie on the downside. That said, a shift in interest rate differentials next year... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rate differentials unlikely to buoy the dollar for long The relationships between the dollar’s value against other “majors” and the gaps between expected interest rates in the US and those elsewhere appear to be re-establishing themselves. This has been... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest bout of EM currency weakness The recent pressure on EM currencies has prompted a stronger reaction from EM central banks than we have seen for some time. But while we do expect a general shift towards monetary tightening in the... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian currencies wobble Asian currencies have recently lost a bit of ground against the dollar as rising Treasury yields in the US have helped push the greenback higher. Although uncertainty over the outlook for US monetary... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker currencies and higher oil prices boost equities Amid escalating international trade tensions, the Nordic and Swiss currencies depreciated across the board in April. Weaker exchange rates helped to give equities a boost, while the main bourses in... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Is the party over? In the last edition of The Capital Markets Analyst, we warned that the party in the financial markets might not last much longer. Since then, the US S&P 500 has fallen considerably from a record high... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to worry about the rupiah Earlier this week Bank Indonesia raised the prospect of an interest rate hike to support the rupiah, which has come under further downward pressure as rising Treasury yields in the US have pushed the... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed month for markets, but rand suffers The rand’s recent rally seems well and truly over; it weakened against the US dollar by even more than EM peers this month. We expect that the currency will continue to fall late this year. 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in the real? The sharp drop in the Brazilian real over the past month has, in our view, been driven more by local developments – including growing uncertainty over the outcome of October’s elections – than it has... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will the Swiss franc continue to weaken? The safe haven Swiss franc has depreciated steadily over the past couple of months despite geopolitical worries and rising protectionism. We think that the franc will continue to weaken as the ECB... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency rally not likely to resume any time soon The recent slumps in three widely-traded emerging market (EM) currencies – the Russian ruble, Turkish lira and Brazilian real – have all partly reversed since last week. But the bigger picture is that... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price surge having only limited impact on dollar The recent resurgence in oil prices should be good news for Canada but, since it is partly due to a temporary spike in geopolitical tensions, we expect prices to fall back later this year. Domestic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
