India Economics Update No need to panic about the rupee The slide in the rupee since the start of the year has raised concerns in some quarters over a repeat of the “Taper Tantrum”, which began five years ago today. But this seems unlikely. The external... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How will monetary policy influence the markets? We think that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will diverge by more than investors are anticipating over the next year or so, but then converge in a way that they are not envisaging. We expect... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Taper Tantrum five years on The sell-off that has gripped EM financial markets over the past few weeks has raised parallels with the Taper Tantrum that occurred almost five years ago to the day. However, economic and financial... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi resilient amidst EM currency sell-off With rising US bond yields putting EM currencies under pressure, the renminbi stands out as a beacon of stability. It has only edged down against the dollar and has continued strengthening in trade... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further hikes likely in Indonesia amid rupiah worries The performance of the rupiah will continue to determine the near-term outlook for monetary policy in Indonesia. With the currency likely to remain under downward pressure as Treasury yields in the US... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does the Argentine peso have much further to fall? Following its near-20% drop so far this year, Argentina’s real effective exchange rate looks pretty close to its ‘fair’ value – we estimate that it probably needs to fall by a modest 5% or so from... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Markets tumble with Iran’s nuclear deal on the brink Financial markets in the Middle East & North Africa have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world over the past week following President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will the slide in EM currencies continue? Emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen sharply on average against the dollar since the middle of last month, and we forecast that they will weaken further between now and the end of next year. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: coalescing risks to trigger emergency rate hike Market sentiment towards Turkey is quickly evaporating as fears mount over the build-up of external vulnerabilities, high and rising inflation, and growing concerns that the central bank’s... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the Turkish lira’s latest fall mean for inflation? The Turkish lira’s decline in recent weeks will keep headline inflation elevated, prompting the central bank to shrug off political pressure and hike interest rates in the coming months. The big risk... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the fall in the lira mean for Turkey’s FX debts? The latest fall in the Turkish lira doesn’t appear to have resulted in widespread balance sheet strains, but there are significant vulnerabilities in the corporate and banking sectors. This adds to... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Apr.) China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to point to very little PBOC action in the FX markets, with muted capital outflows opening the door to renewed efforts to liberalise the capital account. 7th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA rate hike may finally provide a floor for the peso Today’s 675bp interest rate hike by the Argentine central bank, the third emergency hike in a week, finally seems to have brought some support to the currency. Evidence from other EM central banks... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further EM currency weakness likely to be limited Emerging market (EM) currencies have remained under pressure this week, and we expect most to soften further against the dollar. But, with the exceptions of the Turkish lira and Argentine peso, the... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
