Latin America Economics Update How far might the Mexican peso fall if Nafta collapses? We think the Mexican peso could initially fall to as far as 23/$ in the event that Nafta collapses. What happens to the currency beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon several factors, most... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to raise interest rates The Bank of Canada will probably err on the side of caution at its policy meeting next week by deciding to keep interest rates at 1.00%. Although the Bank still seems confident in the economy, NAFTA... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: investment key to sustaining manufacturing boom Egypt’s manufacturing sector has been one of the main beneficiaries from a weaker pound but the recent rapid pace of growth will be difficult to sustain in the absence of a significant pick up in... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will strong earnings growth continue to buoy equities? Healthy economic growth is providing ongoing support to equities, which have performed well over the past month. Indeed, the vast majority of the rise in the MSCI World Index of developed market... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Positive verdict on Abenomics ahead of snap elections The economy is providing a favourable backdrop to Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to be re-elected on 22nd October. Firms are the most upbeat in a generation following a jump in their profits. Job growth... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s external vulnerabilities back under the microscope Turkey’s recent diplomatic spat with the US – and the subsequent sell-off in financial markets – has refocussed attention on the economy’s external vulnerabilities. We have two areas of concern: the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Nearing the cyclical peak Economic growth looks set to strengthen in most EMs over the next year, but the cycle is now close to peaking in China and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Turning the corner Growth across the Middle East and North Africa has slowed further this year, but it should recover in 2018 and 2019. In the Gulf, the drag on GDP growth from this year’s oil production cuts will fade... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The decision by the Fed to begin the process of balance sheet reduction this month – coupled with the heavy hints that a December rate hike remains on the table – has led several clients to ask about... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers’ finances more robust The latest Quarterly National Accounts painted households’ finances in a much better light, supporting our view that consumers will continue to ride out the real pay squeeze fairly well. 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Government collapse triggers Icelandic market sell-off Bond yields across the Nordic and Swiss economies rose in September, largely in line with global trends as investors brought forward their expectations for monetary policy normalisation by the US Fed... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities and currencies come off the boil Asian equities and currencies have generally fallen over the past month. Although worries about the Fed have played a role, local factors have been important too. 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi gives back some of its gains Many had been expecting policymakers to focus on stability above all else in financial markets in the run-up to the October Party Congress. But they this week allowed the renminbi to weaken sharply... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia returns to the international bond market Saudi Arabia returned to the international bond market this month in order to plug its twin budget and current account shortfalls. A total of $12.5bn of dollar debt was issued, split into three... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets soften in September A combination of rising political risk and falling commodity prices caused key African markets to weaken over the past month. Only a few markets bucked the trend, and they gained very little ground. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rally in Lat Am markets cools, but strong Q3 overall Latin America’s financial markets have come under a bit of pressure over the past week or so but the bigger picture is that they have had a strong Q3 overall, comfortably outperforming markets in... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
