Global Markets Update Will CEE currencies continue to track the euro? We think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies and the euro will weaken against the dollar next year. But we judge that CEE currencies will fall by less, given the prospects for monetary... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Bank lending has slowed in recent months and the BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a further weakening in coming months. However, brisk corporate bond issuance and record corporate profits... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s dollar peg under threat as tensions mount The deterioration in relations between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia in recent days has raised fresh concerns over the sustainability of Lebanon’s dollar peg. While the country has substantial FX reserves... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Still too soon to sound the alarm Although the valuations of most risky assets have risen further above their long-run averages during the past quarter, we still don’t expect them to come crashing down any time soon. As we argued in... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Powell nomination won't have big impact on EMs The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB “patience” to see euro fall further The ECB seems set to raise interest rates even later than we had previously assumed and we are now pencilling in the first hike for September 2019. Accordingly, we have made small downward revisions... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central bank actions push bond yields down In October, a combination of rising bond yields in the US and lower bond yields at home pushed Nordic and Swiss currencies down against the dollar. Weaker exchange rates, as well as decent economic... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fading reform hopes roil Brazilian markets Financial markets in Brazil have come under pressure over the past week as a split in President Temer’s ruling coalition has cast doubt over important parts of his reform agenda. The trigger for the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Consumers remain upbeat The latest data on retail sales during China’s National Day “Golden Week” period suggest that consumer demand remains strong. Despite a further increase in overseas tourism during the holiday... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s budget won’t be a giveaway bonanza While Malaysia has made good progress in bringing down its budget deficit, there remains limited room for a pre-election giveaway in the 2018 budget, which is due to be announced on 27th October... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fiscal deficit target under pressure The rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early stages of the fiscal year is a regular occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in latter months. Nevertheless, there are... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further rupee weakness likely The Indian rupee has depreciated over the past few weeks, and recently dropped to a six-month low against the US dollar. Looking ahead, the currency could weaken a little more. But India’s reasonably... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Politics drive latest moves in EM currencies In an otherwise quiet month for EM markets, the sharp falls in the Mexican peso and Turkish lira have stood out. In each case, the triggers have been different – the 7% fall in the peso against the... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the rise in Turkish inflation? The surprising jump in Turkish inflation in the past few months appears to be mainly due to a combination of a rise in dairy and egg inflation, the lingering impact of previous falls in the lira as... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
