EM Valuations Monitor EM currencies do not appear overvalued Although EM currencies are much stronger on average against the dollar now than they were at the start of 2017, most of them still do not appear significantly overvalued. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB sits tight as franc still seen as “highly valued” The Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and intervene in the currency markets as... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What does 2018 have in store for developed markets? We think that investors are still underestimating the extent to which the Fed will tighten policy next year. As a result, we forecast that the dollar and Treasury yields will rise in 2018. We don’t... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Buoyant economy to prompt only minor change in tone Having announced a plan to buy assets at a reduced pace of €30bn per month from January until September 2018 after its last meeting, the ECB seems very unlikely to make any changes this month. It... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to sit tight as ECB taper eases pressure on franc Although the Swiss franc has weakened further over the past three months, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will sound any more relaxed about the exchange rate in its policy statement next... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan follow the Fed and the ECB? A long period of sustained economic growth has helped drive unemployment in Japan to its lowest level in nearly a quarter of a century. Nonetheless, inflation and wage growth are both barely positive... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia losing its interest rate premium The narrowing in Australia’s interest rate premium highlighted by the rise in two-year government bond yields in the US in line with two-year yields in Australia for the first time in almost 20 years... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set to hike rates despite worries over won Concern over the recent strength of the won is unlikely to stop the Bank of Korea (BoK) from hiking interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, but it is likely to prompt the authorities into resuming... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate further in 2018 We expect economic growth in most countries in Latin America to accelerate further in 2018. Of the region’s major economies, we anticipate a pick-up in growth next year in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank recapitalisation pushes equities to fresh highs The surge in Indian equities since the start of the year has continued over the past month, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early November. The latest leg up has been... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Tunisia repeating Egypt’s currency mistakes? The Tunisian authorities have recently introduced a range of new measures in an effort to tighten their grip on the currency. However, Egypt’s experience suggests that such policies do more harm than... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent setback for the dollar should prove temporary We doubt that the fall in the dollar seen in the past few weeks will continue, especially as we think that the Fed will tighten by more than most anticipate next year. 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending suffers as inflation nears peak With real incomes under pressure from subdued nominal pay growth and rising inflation, it isn’t surprising that spending growth on the high street lost more momentum. Indeed, annual retail sales... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) After seeing net capital inflows in September for the first time in 2014, we think outflows will have returned last month as Chinese investors acquired foreign assets at a faster pace and inbound... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Will the Nikkei continue to outperform? The Nikkei is near its highest in 25 years, buoyed by a 200% rise in net profits since PM Abe returned to power five years ago. Looking ahead, we expect the yen to weaken to 120 by the end of next... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will CEE currencies continue to track the euro? We think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies and the euro will weaken against the dollar next year. But we judge that CEE currencies will fall by less, given the prospects for monetary... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
