India Economics Update A mixed start to the year Indian financial markets have had a mixed start to the year with equities surging, the rupee remaining stable against the US dollar, and bonds continuing to sell-off. Looking ahead, we think that... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does optimism about Brexit explain the pound’s rise? With the rise in the pound to its highest level against the US dollar since the eve of the EU referendum not appearing to be justified by relative interest rate expectations, some have argued that it... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the strong pound snuff out the net trade boost? The recent rise in the pound against the dollar to almost $1.40, its highest level since the eve of the EU referendum, raises some concerns that a valuable source of support to economic growth –... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Will UK equities continue to climb? UK equity prices have risen substantially over the past month alongside those in other developed markets, with the FTSE 100 up by around 3%, to 7,700 points. What’s more, this gain in the FTSE has not... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Sustained upturn need not prompt ECB rate hikes The euro-zone’s impressive upturn looks set to continue apace as reduced political uncertainty, high levels of business confidence, and continued strong policy support allow investment to take off... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan to keep policy loose this year Speculation that the Bank of Japan is about to increase its yield target has pushed the yen higher. However, we think that policy tightening remains a distant prospect and that the yen will weaken as... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Bitcoin: how worried/excited should we be? Claims that cryptocurrencies will replace established fiat currencies are rubbish; our view is that Bitcoin is a bubble. Indeed, the latest price falls suggest that the bubble is bursting – although... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price pressures strengthening again Inflation climbed to a fresh high in November and mounting capacity shortages suggest that price pressures will strengthen further. However, most of the recent increase has been driven by higher... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack A busy month for central banks The three major Nordic and Swiss central banks met in December and provided very different messages about the outlook for monetary policy in their respective countries. First, the Swiss National Bank... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will 2018 be a last hurrah for the US dollar? We expect the dollar to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies this year, as the contrast in the monetary policies of the Fed and other major central banks generally... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy shrugging off euro’s rise At the start of January, the euro reached a three-year high against the US dollar and a three-and-a-half year high in trade-weighted terms. While the euro’s climb over the past year or so may seem... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Italian politicians really pull Italy out of the euro? Italy’s general election in March looks likely to produce a fragmented government with eurosceptic tendencies. We don’t think that it will pull Italy out of the euro-zone, but it may cause yields to... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s strength not yet a major concern The main news for the euro-zone economy at the year’s outset has been the further appreciation of the euro. While this might seem like a major headwind to the economy’s upturn, we remain optimistic... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still sanguine on rate outlook Unsurprisingly December’s uneventful Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting barely caused a ripple in financial markets, leaving market participants’ expectations for future interest rates all but... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Nearing full employment Japan’s economy will expand the most this year since 2013. Yet the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further since the start of the year. This isn’t due to a surge in productivity that has reduced... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
