India Chart Pack BJP defeats no-confidence vote Prime Minister Modi’s BJP comfortably defeated the vote of no-confidence initiated by opposition parties on Friday. The result isn’t a major surprise given that the BJP holds a majority in the Lok... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC FX policy becoming more hands-on again The People’s Bank appears to be leaning against downward market pressure on the renminbi. But the depreciation it has allowed so far will already provide a cushion for China’s exporters as they face... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Trade war not the only headwind for risky assets Worries about a global trade war have already weighed on the prices of many risky assets, particularly those in Asia. And there is a growing risk that the US implements even more protectionist... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Pakistan: Major challenges await new government Whichever party wins Pakistan’s upcoming general election will take over an economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. Growth is likely to slow sharply regardless of who wins Wednesday’s... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional recovery gathering steam The raft of quarterly GDP data released over the past month confirmed that the MENA region rebounded at the start of this year and more timely figures suggest that the recovery is gathering momentum... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial vulnerabilities look contained The currency crises that rocked Argentina and Turkey in May and June raised fears that they would presage similar problems in other EMs. The fact that these then failed to materialise once again... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates aggressively, more action to come The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) 100bp hike to its policy rate on Saturday, along with today’s devaluation of the rupee, underlines growing concerns about the country’s precarious external position... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war risks rise, but no panic yet Despite the further escalation in trade tensions between the US and China over the past week, there is little sign that policymakers are starting to panic. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery will peter out in 2019 Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen over the second half of 2018, but we think that the consensus view that this year’s performance will mark the start of a multi-year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy returned to growth in Q2 The contraction in output in the first quarter was just a blip. The available activity data suggest that the economy returned to growth in the second quarter. But growth won’t be as strong this year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trump’s latest tariffs up the stakes for EMs The size of the Trump administration’s latest proposed tariffs on imports from China – and the fact that neither side seems willing to back down – suggests that we’re moving towards a stage where... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war not the only headwind to Asian growth In the event that rising trade tensions lead to a significant fall in US imports from China, it would have a sizeable impact, not just on China, but also on other countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Subdued inflation ties BoJ’s hands We expect GDP growth to be broadly in line with trend both this year and next. The labour market will remain very tight and wage growth may strengthen further. But sluggish demand after next year’s... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to make of Erdogan’s new economic powers? Moves over the past 24 hours by Turkey’s President Erdogan to consolidate his power is likely to result in pressure for looser monetary and fiscal policy, but this will ultimately come at the cost of... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Domestic headwinds building Sentiment about China’s economic prospects has worsened recently as trade tensions have escalated. The tariffs announced so far won’t have a big impact though. Instead, we expect economic growth to... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
