Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to test the water soon with change of language With the Riksbank on track to raise interest rates this year, it is likely to test the water soon by dropping its pledge to loosen policy further if necessary. But as inflation expectations in Sweden... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB unlikely to let franc’s rise be sustained The franc’s downward trend went into reverse last month and turbulence in global financial markets has since threatened to push it up further. In the event of a sustained rout in equity markets, the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sell-off underlines markets’ previous complacency The severity of any further sell-off in global financial markets may be limited by the general health of the global economy and the scope for policymakers to respond if necessary. Nonetheless, the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the recent decline in EM credit spreads justified? The stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global (which is comprised of sovereign dollar-denominated bonds) has continued to fall this year, and has rarely been lower in the post-financial crisis era... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Global forces push exchange rates and bond yields up Following developments in other developed economies this year, Nordic and Swiss currencies have appreciated while equity prices and bond yields have risen. Norway’s currency has outperformed, largely... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi close to high-water mark The renminbi has now reversed all of its losses against the dollar since the day of the botched exchange rate reform in August 2015. We remain upbeat about the currency’s medium-term prospects but... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is there more to the gold rally than a weak dollar? Our analysis shows that dollar weakness can explain much of the recent strength in the price of gold. As such, given our view that the US currency will appreciate this year, we think that those gains... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Jan.) Despite January’s sharp fall in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, the indicator is still broadly consistent with annual GDP growth picking up to around 2%. With exporters benefiting from a weaker... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can the sterling rally continue? There are some reasons to think that the pound’s recent rally may struggle to go much further. Rising US interest rates could prompt something of a recovery in the ailing dollar, while Brexit... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Thailand do about the “strong” baht? The Thai authorities are becoming increasingly concerned by the strength of the baht, which has been one of the best performing emerging market currencies over the past year. The most likely policy... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly TPP and the dazzling dollar The resurrection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership signals that Australia is open for business, but it won’t significantly boost economic growth. A weakening in the Australian dollar from the dazzling... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions simmer as China-US surplus widens China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US rose in 2017 to a record high of US$275bn according to Chinese data. President Trump, according to the White House, stressed his “disappointment” with this... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will blockchain live up to its hype? Even though Bitcoin is almost certainly a bubble, the blockchain technology underpinning it has much greater potential. That said, claims that it will be “the next internet” may be overdoing it. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Exchange rates to diverge as Swedish krona rises Prospects for the Nordic economies and Switzerland are strong, but there are divergent outlooks for monetary policy. In Sweden, inflation is already close to the Riksbank’s target and, with capacity... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update As good as it gets for EM currencies EM currencies have strengthened at the start of 2018 and our synthetic EM exchange rate index has jumped to an 18-month high, but we don’t expect the rally to continue. Indeed, we think most EM... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A mixed start to the year Indian financial markets have had a mixed start to the year with equities surging, the rupee remaining stable against the US dollar, and bonds continuing to sell-off. Looking ahead, we think that... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
