Global Markets Update Does a weak yen spell trouble for Japanese equities? Although Japan’s equities and currency have generally moved in tandem in recent weeks, we think the historical inverse relationship between the two will reassert itself before long. We expect a... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Scope for Gilt yields and sterling to fall further Policymakers at the Bank of England (BoE) are edging closer to easing policy, and we still think they will cut Bank Rate by more than widely anticipated. In turn, we expect this will weigh on Gilt... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Slower easing cycle may not provide relief for the real Although the monetary easing cycle in Brazil is entering a much slower phase, we think the Brazilian real will remain under pressure against the dollar over the coming quarters. In view of wider... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its overnight policy rate (OPR) on hold (at 3.00%) today, and the tone of its statement supports our view that rates will be left unchanged throughout 2024. The... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) While regular private sector wage growth in February and services CPI inflation in March were both a bit higher than the Bank of England had expected, we still think that the flatlining of the economy... 8th May 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The balancing act of a stronger yen for Japan’s markets We expect Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to rise a bit and the yen to come off the boil later this year, creating a headwind for equities there. 8th May 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar softens on Powell & payrolls; MoF goes on the offensive An eventful week in financial markets is ending with the dollar down, but mounting a comeback in the wake of today’s worryingly weak US non-manufacturing ISM survey. Between the earlier softer-than... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Which survey data are giving the best steer on activity? The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies, but we’re more... 3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Another look at risk premia; four key areas of uncertainty Despite the correction in equity markets over the past month, risk premia generally remain low across financial markets. While we expect this to continue as an AI-driven bubble inflates in equity... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may keep hiking even if inflation target isn’t met Even though the economic case for preventing the yen from sliding is much weaker, the Ministry of Finance seems to have responded with an even more forceful round of foreign exchange interventions... 3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Will China devalue the renminbi? Chinese policymakers won’t risk reliving the turmoil of 2015 by engineering a sudden devaluation of the renminbi. They may allow the currency to weaken gradually over the coming years to help industry... 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The US dollar has made further gains against most major currencies over the past month or so. Interest rate expectations have continued to pick up in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing... 30th April 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Weakness in the Mexican peso may have further to go We think that the recent weakness in the Mexican peso was partly a symptom of stretched positioning. Given that risk premia still appear unusually low and the outlook for the “carry trade” is... 30th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What’s next for Chinese financial markets? While we expect Chinese bonds and equities to make more gains in the near term, we think the outlook further ahead is not as bright for the latter. 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest swings in the yen Japan’s apparent intervention in support of the beleaguered yen may buy some time for the currency to stabilise, but is unlikely to lead to sustained turnaround until US interest rate expectations... 29th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets overdo higher for longer narrative While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK... 29th April 2024 · 10 mins read
