Latin America Economics Update Peruvian sol to outperform most EM currencies The Peruvian sol has, despite the emergence of several headwinds, held up surprisingly well over the past few months. While we expect most currencies in the emerging world to weaken over the next 12... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian krone to weaken even as interest rates rise The Norges Bank will soon start to tighten monetary policy. But in contrast to the consensus view, we think that as interest rates rise over the next few years, the krone will depreciate against the... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Recent weakness appears increasingly broad-based Data released in July revealed a wide-spread economic slowdown across most of Sub-Saharan Africa. The available figures mostly suggest that conditions improved more recently, but that growth remained... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What next for the Pakistani rupee? The rebound in the Pakistani rupee, which has gained around 4% against the US dollar since last week’s election, is likely to prove fleeting. The exact trigger behind the surprise jump in the currency... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks becoming more hawkish The rise in inflation in most of Emerging Europe over the past month has caused central banks to adopt a more hawkish tone. Policymakers in Romania and the Czech Republic are likely to hike interest... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Nafta talks restart, dire data from Argentina The relatively modest rise in the Mexican peso against the dollar in reaction to the positive news flow on Nafta talks suggests that investors are interpreting recent events with caution. Indeed, a... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Conditions faltering The latest activity figures suggest that EM growth faltered a bit in the middle of Q2. Consumer spending slowed in April and May, while EM industry seems to have started to lose momentum. Forward... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation rises across region, policy response to vary The latest figures show that inflation rose across Latin America in June and early July, but the reaction from the region’s central banks is likely to differ. Policymakers in Mexico will focus more on... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth set to slow further We expect GDP growth across Emerging Europe to slow by more than most expect over 2019-20 and monetary policy is set to be tightened further than is priced into markets. The important exception to... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for Pakistan after the election? Imran Khan looks set to be confirmed as Pakistan’s next prime minister just as the economy teeters on the brink of a full-blown economic crisis. His plans to boost social spending will have to be... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Weak balance sheets come into focus Market concerns over fragile balance sheets have forced policymakers in a number of frontier economies to take action over the past month. Strains in the balance of payments prompted the authorities... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Pre-election inflation fears misplaced Widespread fears that Nigeria’s upcoming election will spur inflation are not supported by the available evidence. We think that price pressures will continue to ease over the rest of this year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC set to embark on tightening cycle The collective view of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in June was that “an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period” would be necessary if the economy evolves in line with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external position on the mend The improvement in Egypt’s balance of payments position over the past eighteen months should be sustained, providing some support to the pound. Accordingly, inflation should resume its downward trend... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank bows to Erdogan The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave its one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.75%, when most had expected at least a 100bp hike, suggests that President Erdogan is already using his strengthened... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
