Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What do higher US interest rates mean for the Gulf? The Gulf’s dollar pegs mean that further rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported into the region, keeping a lid on credit growth and pushing up government borrowing costs. This is... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets still underestimating pace of rate hikes Financial markets are now pricing in a 60% probability of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raising Bank Rate by a further 25bps in May, up from around 40% at the start of the year. But we still... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will a growing twin deficit drive the dollar even lower? The dollar’s weakness in the face of tighter Fed policy is reminiscent of the mid-2000s. At the time, interest rates and bond yields also moved in favour of the US, but its currency was dragged down... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: Time to worry about the weak peso? A low level of foreign currency debt in the Philippines means the recent weakness of the peso is not a major concern. In fact, despite the current worries about rising inflation, policymakers appear... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM assets vulnerable to further falls in US equities The recent sell-off in emerging market (EM) equities after the US stock market slumped reiterated how exposed they are to movements in developed market equities. Although EM equities have since... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Are the best days over for EM financial markets? After a very strong run, EM bonds, equities and currencies have all faltered recently. Although they have since bounced back a bit, we think that their best days are now over. 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Iceland: What went right and what might go wrong? Icelandic growth is set to hold up well with tourism booming despite the strength of the króna and with the financial imbalances that caused the previous crisis largely resolved. But inflation is a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weaker dollar is here to stay After depreciating by almost 10% in trade-weighted terms since the beginning of 2017, we suspect that the dollar is set to remain relatively stable over the next few years. The depreciation already... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Is Japan overheating? Japan’s economy recorded an eighth consecutive quarter of growth in Q4, the longest uninterrupted run of expansion since the late 1980s. Unemployment is very low, inflation has started to pick up... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should rising domestic inflationary pressure worry the MPC? Inflation proved unexpectedly sticky in January, remaining unchanged at 3.0%, contrary to the consensus expectation for it to fall. However, we don’t think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss franc really overvalued? Although the franc has strengthened in recent weeks, the big picture is that the currency is over 5% weaker than this time a year ago. Currency valuation measures paint a mixed picture but our view is... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rethinking the yen The yen has strengthened in recent months even though investors are now anticipating a more aggressive pace of tightening by the US Fed. While we expect US long-term interest rates to end this year a... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers pushing back on renminbi Today’s sharp move in the renminbi underlines the extent to which policymakers are keen to prevent the emergence of strong speculative pressures on the currency. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro’s support now looks set to last While US interest rate expectations for this year have risen into line with our own, this has not undermined the euro as we had anticipated. Instead, markets have focused on the strength of the euro... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No swan song for the dollar We are abandoning our expectation that the dollar will have a last hurrah this year. We had previously expected it to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies, as the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
