Japan Chart Pack Tight labour market finally boosting pay Revised data show that regular earnings expanded at the fastest pace in two decades at the start of this year, underlining that the tight labour market is finally generating stronger cost pressures... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble’s fall doesn’t rule out further rate cuts The sharp fall in the Russian ruble today has raised the risk that the central bank pauses its easing cycle when it meets later this month. The situation is in a state of flux and the outlook for... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The lira’s fall and what it means for inflation and rates The fall in the Turkish lira seen in the past few weeks doesn’t look large enough (yet) to prevent inflation from easing later in the year and to prompt a monetary policy response, not least given... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Tougher times may lie ahead for the IT sector Equities have had a tough time over the past month, with the information technology (IT) sector in the US hit particularly hard since mid-March. The poor performance of the IT sector cannot be pinned... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are Asian countries manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report next month which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Currently, Thailand is the only country in... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira highlights Turkey’s external vulnerabilities The Turkish lira has steadied in recent days, but the sharp decline seen earlier this month has reinforced concerns about the risks posed by the widening current account deficit. If the government... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: risk of messy dinar devaluation rising Pressure is building on the Tunisian dinar and our central scenario is that the IMF will push the authorities to loosen their grip on the currency in the near future. This is likely to result in a 10%... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: What to make of the latest fall in the rupee? The latest fall in the Pakistani rupee has once again put the spotlight on the country’s precarious balance of payments position. Pakistan will soon be forced to either let the currency weaken much... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a parallel currency the answer to Italy’s problems? Introducing a parallel currency could help to stimulate Italy’s economy by providing a fiscal boost and leading to an improvement in competitiveness. That said, despite some of the eurosceptic parties... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Expansion has become shakier Revised GDP figures confirmed that the economic recovery continued apace in Q4. However, the more recent monthly activity data suggest that the longest period of uninterrupted expansion since the late... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's underperformance to persist The Canadian dollar rebounded yesterday following the confirmation that Canada’s economy will be exempt from US tariffs on steel and aluminium. It isn’t out of the woods yet, however. NAFTA’s future... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen strength another stumbling block for BoJ The yen would have to strengthen much further before it turns into a major drag on export competitiveness and corporate profits. However, the recent appreciation should bring the pick-up in goods... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the Hong Kong dollar peg under threat? The Hong Kong dollar has weakened this week to historic lows, though remaining within the narrow confines of its currency peg. But this is the result of ample domestic liquidity which has kept local... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Equity valuations unlikely to lend near-term support The price/forward earnings ratio of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has fallen back a touch as the index has had a bumpy start to the year. We doubt that valuations will provide any support over... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly There goes Australia’s interest rate premium Our relative views on monetary policy in the US and Australia suggest that US 10-year bond yields will rise further above Australian yields this year. While this would be rare, what’s more unusual is... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How big a threat is Italy’s election? Italy’s general election on Sunday 4th March seems likely to result in a government that pushes for a small fiscal stimulus, largely centred on tax cuts. But we doubt that this would provide much of a... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
