UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) The stickiness of inflation in April has led us to shift back our forecast for the timing of the first interest rate cut from 5.25% from June to August. Even so, our view that CPI inflation will fall... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024) Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus... 28th May 2024 · 0 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar consolidates as yields edge higher across the board The dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, halting its slide over the past couple of weeks. Bond yields in the US rebounded this week, partly due to the Fed... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the Turkish lira turning a corner? Turkish policymakers have this week been extolling the lira’s recent stability. And the surge in foreign capital inflows after March’s rate hike suggests that there is a growing risk that the currency... 24th May 2024 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD to outperform other G10 currencies We think the kiwi and the aussie strength will continue over the next couple of years as we expect they will be among the last developed economies to start an easing cycle. 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A Labour government probably wouldn’t roil UK markets While the prospect of the Labour Party returning to government in the UK for the first time in 14 years might raise a few eyebrows in the financial markets, we wouldn’t put much store by the fact that... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Worst may not be over yet for South African financial assets Having underperformed most other EMs since the pandemic, we think that returns of financial assets in South Africa will continue to disappoint. The outlook would worsen if the African National... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 24) Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s bumper trade surplus set to shrink The sharp rise in Brazil’s goods exports and the widening of the trade surplus since 2019 have been a point of strength for the economy. But we think these will reverse course before long. This feeds... 21st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US equity outperformance may not help to revive the dollar The US dollar has been on the back foot amid the renewed rally in “risky” assets. While we think US stocks will soon re-establish the lead among global equities, we doubt US equity outperformance... 20th May 2024 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar softens on inflation relief The US dollar has eased back in the wake of somewhat better news on US inflation this week, which has seen US interest rate expectations fall back a bit further. Between this week’s inflation news... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Examining the divergence between EM credit spreads and FX For much of the past year, the dollar has strengthened against emerging market (EM) currencies even as EM sovereign dollar bond spreads have narrowed. One way or another, that is unlikely to last. 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about... 16th May 2024 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Rand strength likely to reverse course soon Despite the rand’s recent outperformance, we think risks around the upcoming election in South Africa, among other factors, will cause renewed weakness in the currency before long. In view of wider... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
