EM Markets Chart Pack Turkey’s crisis just one of many threats to EM assets The main factor weighing on EM assets recently has been worries about contagion from the crisis in Turkey. But even if these fears subside, there are plenty of other reasons to be pessimistic about... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falls in commodity prices highlight external risks The declines in commodity prices this week following the crisis in Turkey highlighted the connections that make Canada more vulnerable than many advanced economies to developments elsewhere in the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia acts to support the rupiah, Korean job woes The authorities in Indonesia have redoubled their efforts to support the rupiah over the past week amid further downward pressure on EM currencies caused by the crisis in Turkey. Meanwhile, labour... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira rebounds, Putin policy wobbles The Turkish lira has recovered lost ground since Monday, although policymakers have only done the bare minimum in response to the crisis. There have been some positive noises on fiscal policy, yet... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The dollar, wages and the inflation target The weakening in the Australian dollar to a 19-month low will provide a small boost to CPI inflation, but it won’t solve Australia’s persistent problem of low wage growth. While lowering the RBA’s... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after an EM currency crisis? Both Turkey and Argentina have now suffered currency crises this year. In previous EM currency crises, economies experienced a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, averaging 5-6%-pts, and a rise in inflation... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar is still a key driver of commodity prices After breaking down in April and May, the relationship between the dollar and commodity prices seems to have re-established itself. Given our view that the dollar will remain strong into 2019... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Pressure on Egypt’s pound? Egyptian dollar bonds have performed particularly poorly this week, suggesting that the recent turmoil in EM financial markets exacerbated the slowdown in capital inflows to the country that was... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update September rate hike by Norges Bank looks nailed on After leaving policy unchanged today, the Norges Bank looks almost certain to begin raising interest rates at its next meeting in September. But even as the central bank tightens monetary policy over... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t appear unsustainably high There is a widely-held view that the prices of many financial assets are bound to come crashing down sooner or later, because their valuations have risen far above the long-run averages to which they... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening to come in Indonesia Today’s rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) comes against a backdrop of continued weak economic growth and subdued inflation, and demonstrates that BI’s main focus remains supporting the currency. With... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand: Why always me? The rand’s status as a liquid, easily traded currency makes it particularly vulnerable to shifts in EM sentiment. But these seldom last, and the SARB will not – as some expect – respond by hiking... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The tide may turn in favour of the dollar next year Even though both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened by more than 10% this year and have pretty much hit our end-year forecasts, the risks still lie on the downside. The tide may turn... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Loonie to depreciate even if NAFTA deal is reached A quick NAFTA deal is an upside risk to our forecast for the loonie to remain near its current rate against the US dollar this year. But our forecasts for various commodity prices to decline and... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the crisis in Turkey means for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar again today on worries about Turkey. While the pressure from this source might not last long, we think that the outlook is fairly poor... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
