India Economics Update Policymakers comfortable with weaker rupee The rupee’s slide against the US dollar this year has been met with frenzied commentary in some quarters. But policymakers look comfortable with the weaker rupee. In particular, the RBI appears to... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly New franc forecasts, Swedish election heats up The upward pressure on the Swiss franc eased this week and our forecasts for monetary policy in Switzerland suggest that the currency will continue to depreciate against the euro over the next couple... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What explains the scale of recent EM currency falls? The extent of the falls in EM currencies seen since April have generally been closely correlated with the degree of countries’ external vulnerabilities. On almost all measures, Turkey and Argentina... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble hit by sanctions, MNB to change tack The Russian ruble came under pressure this week as investors worried that US sanctions will be ramped up. For now, though, we don’t think that this will have a significant near-term impact on the... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to IMF, Rand wobbles, Zambia holds rates Few details about Angola’s request for IMF aid have been released, but any deal would boost investor confidence. We revised down our rand/dollar exchange rate forecasts this week. A tweet from... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey in crisis Turkey plunged into a full-blown currency crisis this month following the imposition of US sanctions and an absence of (or refusal to pursue) an orthodox policy response. Inflation, which was already... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the dollar pondering a Labor government? This week’s political chaos has increased the downside risks to the Australian dollar. Although the markets welcomed the news that Scott Morrison has replaced Malcolm Turnbull as Australia’s Prime... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly New forecasts for the rupee The rupee has stabilised over the past week or so, but it remains very close to an all-time low against the US dollar. With sentiment towards EMs unlikely to improve dramatically any time soon, we... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How does the latest EM sell-off stack up? Asset prices in Turkey and Argentina have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, while the moves in other countries’ markets look similar to previous EM sell-offs over the past decade. It’s still very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Where is the Swiss franc headed? Even after its recent rise, we still think that the Swiss franc will weaken against the euro over the coming years as the Swiss National Bank lags the ECB in tightening monetary policy. But sustained... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Risk of “no deal” weighs on the pound The pound has fallen by almost 10% against the US dollar over the past four months, leaving it at $1.29. Much of this reflects broad-based dollar strength – the pound has slipped by much less against... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Revising down our rand forecasts The rand’s recent falls have prompted us to downgrade our end of year forecasts. We now think that the currency will slip from 14.4/$ to 15/$ by the end of 2018 and to 15.5/$ by the end of 2019. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State firms step in to counter private-sector outflows Private firms and individuals may have pulled capital out of China in recent weeks in response to concerns about the renminbi, trade tensions and the economy. But intervention by state banks and firms... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycle continues EM central banks continued to tighten monetary policy in August. Policymakers in Argentina and Indonesia raised interest rates to support their currencies amid fears of contagion from the crisis in... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s debt repayment crunch Turkey’s economy has so far managed to come through the worst of the plunge in the lira without suffering acute financial stress. That said, the banking sector faces a large external debt repayment... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Dollar’s rise won’t knock the Fed off course The near 6% rally in the dollar this year will trigger a slowdown in real export growth but, unlike the bigger dollar appreciation in 2014 and 2015, it won’t stop the Fed from continuing to hike... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
