Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Philippines: current account deficit hits record in Q3 One of the key risks to the Philippines over the coming year is a further widening of the current account deficit. Data released earlier in the week showed the deficit widened to 3.0% of GDP in the... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit and the economy: What next? MPs are increasingly pushing for the Government to change tack to break the current political impasse by stepping up “no deal” planning, considering a second referendum, forcing a general election or... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: paving the way for a weaker pound The past month has brought signs that Egyptian policymakers are trying to simplify the country’s exchange rate setup, which is ultimately likely to result in a weaker pound. Over the past six months... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2019 China’s economic slowdown looks set to deepen next year, weighing on equity prices and the renminbi. Policy stimulus should put a floor beneath growth before the year is out but won’t drive a strong... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weighing up the Brexit risks for sterling We think that there is more upside, than downside, risk for sterling when we weigh up the potential outcomes that could result from the chaos surrounding the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand to hike rates, peso to fall further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is likely to raise its policy rate for the first time since 2011 at its meeting on Wednesday due to concerns about accelerating credit growth. Meanwhile, having widened to a... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB turns even more dovish The Swiss National Bank reiterated its commitment to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and revised down its forecasts for inflation and GDP. As we think inflation will be even lower than... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Nov.) Speculation that the People’s Bank (PBOC) stepped up intervention last month to stabilise the exchange rate doesn’t appear to be borne out by the data on its FX reserves. 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC meets, Egypt’s exchange rate policy OPEC’s biannual meeting kicked off today and all the signs are that the cartel will agree to an output cut by the time the meeting concludes tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Egyptian authorities have taken... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q4 Following the solid rise in GDP in the third quarter, the recent news has been disappointing. The business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. And following a brief period... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: external position improving but growth to slow The collapse in the rupee and an aggressive tightening of monetary policy is leading to a welcome fall in Pakistan’s external imbalances. However, with most of the adjustment taking place through a... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks can’t prop up the Egyptian pound for much longer The Egyptian authorities appear to have leaned on state-owned banks to sell FX assets to offset pressure on the pound recently, but this can only be sustained for a few more months at most. The... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
