UK Economics Update Brexit: A pivotal week for the economy and the pound By significantly increasing or decreasing the chances of a no deal Brexit, this week could prove pivotal for the economy and the pound. 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s IMF deal to sustain bond rally, ARS drop Ecuador’s IMF deal announced this week will help to anchor President Lenín Moreno’s austerity drive and sustain the rally in sovereign bonds. Meanwhile, the Argentine peso has come under renewed... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for Indonesia’s current account? Indonesia’s current account deficit should narrow this year, but not by enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates, as some analysts are now predicting. 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market resilient, sterling unmoved by political split After a worrying start to the year, the economic news this week has been a little better. This supports our view that while Brexit uncertainty is hampering growth, the economy is fundamentally sound... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Thai baht continues to strengthen despite political risks The possibility of political unrest ahead of Thailand’s election next month is one of the key risks facing the economy, but so far at least, the uncertainty is having little impact on the currency... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lira still vulnerable to swings in risk appetite The improvement in Turkey’s current account position means the lira no longer looks fundamentally misaligned, but the recent period of stability won’t last. While a repeat of last year’s currency... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Implications of Riksbank’s FX and QE policies The Riksbank delivered a slightly more hawkish message than anticipated at its meeting this week, but we still think that the chance of an interest rate hike this year is falling. Meanwhile, despite... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The implications of slower global growth for EM assets In this Focus, we argue that the bright start to 2019 for most EM assets will not last, as growth in both emerging and advanced economies slows markedly in the next couple of years. Within the EM... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Scope to stand out from the crowd Should a Brexit deal be reached within the next few months, the UK’s financial markets will probably buck the global trend with money market rates, Gilt yields and the pound all rising by more than is... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have intervened little in FX markets last month, suggesting that the renminbi is not facing much downward pressure at present. However, with the economy likely to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Safe-haven flows to support the Swiss franc this year While the Swiss franc has not benefitted much from recent upheaval in markets, including yesterday’s sell-off in US equities, it has been very stable. We expect this to remain the case in 2019, as... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish rates to stay on hold despite krone weakness The Danish krone is now close to the centre of the central bank’s exchange rate band – a level at which it has in the past unilaterally raised interest rates. However, we think it is likely to leave... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recession risks rising Economic activity finished last year on a weak note and most business surveys suggest that things did not improve in January. Italy went back into recession in the second half of 2018 and the evidence... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Loonie’s strong run unlikely to be sustained A softening economy, slow wage growth and a drop back in oil prices are all reasons to doubt that the loonie’s recent strong run will be sustained. We see the currency declining to $0.72 this year. 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Waiting for the handbrake to be released Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi to weaken again, banks boost capital buffers Progress in the US-China trade talks and the dollar’s fall following the US Fed’s dovish policy statement this week pushed the renminbi to a six-month high. But we think that pressure on the currency... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
