UK Economics Update Sterling resilient in the face of no deal fears We think that the combination of investors already being heavily net short on sterling, a relatively small increase in the odds of a “no deal” Brexit and the fact that sterling has already fallen... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Italian tensions will keep Swiss franc in demand Safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc increased this week as the Italian Government clashed with the EU over its 2019 Budget. With worries about Italy set to persist, we think that the franc will... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC restarts FX sales, state media get new buzzword The PBOC has been hiding its efforts to support the renminbi over recent months. But a release this week showed the clear hand of the central bank: the PBOC’s balance sheet for September reveals the... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ to slow bond purchases, but not due to US US insistence that provisions against currency manipulation be a part of any future trade deal with Japan has raised suggestions this week that Japanese policymakers, particularly those at the Bank of... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook S&P 500, Treasury yields and US dollar all likely to fall We think that the S&P 500, Treasury yields and the US dollar will all fall by the end of next year, as a sharp slowdown in the US economy prompts the Fed to stop hiking rates sooner than investors are... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and Argentina not out of the woods The collapses in the Turkish lira and Argentine peso last quarter have caused bank and sovereign debt risks, respectively, to mount in those countries. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities are brewing... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies to provide only a modest boost The falls in most Latin American currencies this year have improved competiveness, but the conditions don’t seem to be in place for this to translate into a significant increase in net exports. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three reasons we expect the renminbi to breach 7.0 Slower economic growth, monetary easing and escalating trade tensions will all put the renminbi under pressure in the months ahead. The People’s Bank will continue to lean in the other direction but... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Valuations don’t point to rebound in EM currencies Even though emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen a long way against the US dollar in recent months, in most cases their valuations do not yet appear particularly low. This pours cold water on... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: strong baht will not stop rate hikes There are good reasons for the Bank of Thailand not to hike interest rates at its next meeting, as it currently appears determined to do. But currency strength is not one of them. 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Strength of Norwegian krone likely to end soon Although the Norwegian krone has been one of the best-performing currencies during the past couple of months, we expect it to weaken over the next two years as oil prices fall, economic growth slows... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan and IMF start talks, equities set for further falls The head of the IMF, Christine Legarde this week set the tone for what are likely to be tough negotiations with Pakistan when she said the Fund would require Pakistan to be “absolutely transparent”... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly State elections come into focus The Electoral Commission confirmed this week that five state elections will take place before the end of 2018. As ever, these will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level, and... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Which countries are manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Vietnam is currently the only country in Emerging Asia... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
