Capital Daily Market impacts of central banks’ tariff responses While today's US PPI print supports our view that the Fed will stand pat this year, comments from central bankers in Canada and Japan suggest they may have different views about how over how to... 13th March 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: Economy well-placed to weather tariff storm India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 11th March 2025 · 17 mins read
Capital Daily China’s bonds could reverse course soon We suspect the jump in bond yields in China will prove short-lived. 10th March 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Taking stock of the euro’s epic rally The dollar has suffered one of its largest weekly falls on record in the wake of President Trump’s latest tariff flip-flop, continued jitters around the health of the US economy and, most importantly... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Economic Weekly: The rand's shaky outlook, Angola's latest Article IV The rand may have rallied this week on the news that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed in 2024, but we think worse terms of trade, GNU instability and the associated risks in the public... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Some new market forecasts for a changing world The unravelling of US exceptionalism in stock markets since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January has been mainly driven by concerns about the US’ dominance of AI and the relative... 6th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds Update German yields, stocks, and the euro surge – what next? In this Update, we put into context the recent surges in Bund yields, German equities, and the euro that have been triggered by expectations of a significant loosening of fiscal policy in Europe’s... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus China's economic roadmap for 2025 The GDP target announced for 2025 suggests that policymakers are hoping to achieve steady growth this year, but we don’t think that the policy agenda set out today at the National People’s Congress... 5th March 2025 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily China’s NPC and the fate of its equity market We don’t see anything in the outcomes of China’s NPC meetings to abandon our upbeat near-term view on the country’s stock market. 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trade war 2.0: sea change or bump in the road? President Trump’s decision to follow through with tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, combined with further weak economic data in the US, has resulted in a further flight to safety across financial... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: A closer look at Trump tariff risks and currencies The greenback has rebounded this week as market participants have started to take President Trump’s continued tariff threats a bit more seriously and risk sentiment has soured. Even so, we think that... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The unravelling of US exceptionalism This week’s pull-back in the US stock market and the unravelling of US exceptionalism in equities since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January have been driven by growing concerns... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 25) We expect fiscal stimulus to keep China’s economy growing at pace over the first half of this year. But as fiscal support fades and US tariffs start to drag on exports, we think growth will start to... 28th February 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: What to watch at the NPC The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Wednesday with the delivery of the Work Report and annual budget. While the GDP growth target usually receives the most attention, we don't think... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Rising US tariffs to test China’s exchange rate policy With US tariffs now escalating, the key question is whether the People’s Bank (PBOC) will allow the exchange rate to adjust in response. We think it ultimately will, just as it did during the first... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the “Trump trade” already over? Notwithstanding recent setbacks, we continue to think that this year will see a major rally in US equity markets, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar. 27th February 2025 · 6 mins read
