FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar goes from strength to strength The US dollar has rallied further this week as investors have continued to price in the implications of a second Trump term and digest weak economic data in key trading partners. This rally has taken... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors’ focus shifting from EZ inflation to growth November’s weaker-than-expected Flash PMIs for the euro-zone prompted investors to lower their policy rate expectations. Even so, we still expect more easing than implied in money markets, so we think... 22nd November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Revised bond yield forecasts, Trump and the SNB Our new bond yield forecasts show US and German bond yields diverging slightly over the coming year as monetary policy is loosened more aggressively in Europe. Meanwhile, we think a universal US... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus What will US protectionism mean for the euro-zone? Our base case is that protectionist policies from the US next year will have only a small economic impact on Europe, but the fallout will vary between countries and there are risks of greater damage... 22nd November 2024 · 20 mins read
Bonds & Equities Taking stock of the US election fallout With the dust settling on Trump’s victory earlier this month, this Update takes stock of what has happened across currencies, bonds, and equities; the reasons for these moves; and what we think will... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB more optimistic that inflation is under control The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to lower its repo rate by 25bp to 7.75% was not a surprise and Governor Kganyago sounded more optimistic that inflation is under control. Lingering concerns... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t worry about euro-dollar parity We think that the euro will fall to parity against the US dollar next year but will strengthen against some other currencies, such as the renminbi, and on a trade-weighted basis we forecast it to be... 18th November 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Making the dollar great again The US dollar continues to build on its post-election rally, with the DXY index now at its highest level in more than a year. While a period of consolidation looks likely in the near term given the... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rand weakness, Zambia hikes rates The South African has been one of the worst performing EM currencies since the US election, a symptom of the “Trump trade”, but also sharp falls in the prices of key commodity exports. We expect the... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE struggling, Turkish lira an unlikely outperformer The Q3 GDP data released out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week has only added to worries about the health of the region’s economies, but with inflation still a concern – and in some cases... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Revising our currency forecasts to account for Trump The US dollar has rallied sharply since the US election last week – as we had expected it would in the event of a Trump win. Based on our assessment of the new policy outlook in the US, we think the... 14th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Euro parity is back on the cards The euro has suffered more than most in the wake of Trump’s victory and we doubt that will let up anytime soon. Given our view that tariffs will be imposed next year and the ECB will ease by more than... 11th November 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Trump, tariffs, and the dollar While President Trump’s return to the White House and the apparent Republican sweep in Congress made a big splash in currency markets – Wednesday saw the largest single day rise in the DXY index since... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
