Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of volatility and risk premia Measures of cross-asset volatility and risk premia suggest that investors are increasingly discounting a fairly rosy market environment over the coming months. This leaves them at risk of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2023) Flows out of EM bond and equity markets have eased since early October, but we think the recent dollar weakness which has helped to support capital flows into EMs is unlikely to continue. The good... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Economic turbulence could still knock “risky” assets off course Even though we expect the S&P 500 to end 2024 at a much higher level than it is now, we doubt it will build on its recent gains over the coming months given the outlook for the economy. 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Answering your questions about the effects of R* on markets Following the release of our new analysis on real equilibrium interest rates (R*) last month, we held an online Drop-In last week and in-person Roundtable events with clients yesterday to discuss our... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ‘Magnificent 7’ may keep outperforming for a while Given our pessimistic view of the economy in the US, we think that equities there will fare quite poorly in the near term. But the biggest components of the S&P 500 might hold up better. 8th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Shifting correlations may also be driving Treasury term premia One factor that may have contributed to higher Treasury term premia, as posited recently by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in connection with the Quarterly Refunding, is a shift in the... 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A goldilocks Employment Report for US bonds and equities We think today’s big moves in markets in the wake of October’s US Employment Report are a sign of things to come over the next twelve months or so. 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We still don’t expect a “new dawn” for Japan’s equities We expect Japan’s stock market to underperform that of the US in both local- and common-currency terms over the next couple of years. 3rd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4 2023) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 1st November 2023. Our latest projections have been... 2nd November 2023 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update Approaching peak-pessimism for clean energy equities The underperformance of wind and solar equities since early 2021 has largely been driven by higher interest rates, which disproportionately affect the cost of renewables projects. But while the days... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our View: Growth in the US and other advanced economies will disappoint, keeping pressure... 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect the fortunes of 'safe' assets to improve over the rest of this year, largely... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Higher for longer narrative has gone too far While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates... 30th October 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think it’s game over for AI-related equities Today’s rebound in Amazon’s share price following news that its sales were better than expected in Q3 has shored up the performance of the ‘Magnificent 7’ in what has otherwise been a tough week for... 27th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative appeal of US corporate bonds and equities Although US high-yield (HY) corporate bonds are more attractively valued than at any time since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we doubt they will outperform US equities over the next couple of... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What our revised forecasts for Treasuries imply for US equities Although we have revised up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield between now and the end of 2025, we aren’t inclined to change our upbeat projection for the S&P 500 over this period. This is... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read