Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2023) Inflows into EM bond and equity markets have picked up over the past month, particularly in Turkey where optimism around the policy U-turn seems to be building. Capital flows into EMs may be bumpy in... 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Falling Treasury yields may provide more respite for REITs Although we expect US equity office REITs to benefit further from falling long-dated Treasury yields, we continue to think that their long-run prospects are blighted by a structural reduction in... 4th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Still time for the S&P 500 to party like it’s 1999 Despite how far it has come this year, we think the S&P 500 can make further big gains over the next couple of years. 1st December 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our View: We are more dovish than investors regarding the amount of rate cuts that the Fed... 30th November 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Both "safe" and "risky" assets have generally notched up strong returns this month. We... 30th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The rebound in the activity data in November has convinced investors that the first interest rate cut will happen later, in August next year instead of June. Our view that core inflation will ease... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Why US equities may continue to outshine corporate bonds Although pull-backs in credit spreads and in the yields of Treasuries have contributed to a strong performance from US corporate bonds in November, they have underperformed US equities regardless so... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Economics to keep trumping politics in EZ markets While the Freedom Party’s victory in the Dutch parliamentary election was a big surprise, there is in our view only a very small probability that it will have a substantial impact on financial markets... 23rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Has the AI tailwind for equity markets run out of puff? We think investor enthusiasm about AI could yet boost equity prices further. 22nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Breaking down US equities’ recent success US equities’ outperformance this year is due almost entirely to the few industries that include “Big Tech” firms, as the rest of the US stock market fared similarly to equities in the rest of the... 22nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Falling yields don’t guarantee ‘growth’ outperformance ‘Growth’ stocks have held up well vis-à-vis ‘value’ stocks this year despite the surge in real yields. But relatively optimistic earnings expectations for growth stocks may prevent them from steaming... 17th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The US/China relationship and global financial markets With a lot of pessimism seemingly already priced in to China’s “risky” assets, we suspect any further thawing in US/China relations could give them a boost. But we think their longer-term outlook is... 17th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The prospects for the “China risk premium” A thawing in China/US tensions could, in our view, help “risky” assets in China for a while by reducing the “China risk premium” that seems to have emerged. But we doubt it would fully reverse the... 16th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update Outperformance of Brazilian assets likely to end soon Growing external and domestic headwinds suggest to us that Brazilian financial markets will come under pressure over the short term and are unlikely to resume their outperformance beyond that. In view... 15th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks and the Three Bull Markets Investors seem to be banking on a “Goldilocks” US economic environment which, if sustained, might lead to bull markets for most bonds, equities, and currencies. But we think this is a bit optimistic. 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read