Asset Allocation Update Chinese equities may keep trailing Indian ones While equities in China might make up some lost ground over the next few months relative to those in India, we suspect they’ll underperform over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we are... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of markets’ rocky start to 2024 With most major bond and equity markets on track for a second down day to start the new year, it’s fair to say that financial markets have started 2024 with something of a mild hangover. While reading... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are the bears finally coming for the Goldilocks trade? We think “risky” assets could struggle relative to “safe” ones in the near term if, as we expect, growth disappoints, although we still think they’ll outperform over next year as a whole. Note: The... 21st December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily “Growth” may keep outperforming “value” next year While the valuation gap between “growth” and “value” factors in the US is high by past standards, we suspect that “growth” will generally keep outperforming in the next year or two. 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Investors’ growing expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates in March next year, as well as the recent soft UK wage and inflation data, have convinced investors that the Bank of England... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update US economy unlikely to burst another bubble in equities Although the economic backdrop is likely to be less favourable for the stock market in the US over the next two years than it was in second half of the 1990s, we doubt this will prevent a similar... 19th December 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (December 2023) The valuations of “risky” assets have recovered somewhat lately as “safe” asset yields have tumbled. While we suspect any slowdown in global growth could put risky asset valuations back under pressure... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are China’s equities finally about to stage a comeback? We think China’s equities could outperform those elsewhere in the near term, but suspect their longer-run outlook is fairly bleak. 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Sensex surge, coal and COP28 The rally in Indian equities over the past month is likely to have left overall market capitalisation at almost US$4trn, and on the cusp of overtaking Hong Kong’s equity market to become the seventh... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Mission Accomplished? While central banks remain reluctant to declare victory over inflation just yet, bond markets appear more than happy to do so on their behalf. With most of the policy rate cuts which we forecast over... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election manoeuvres, hawkish RBI, Q1 Outlook The surge in the Sensex this week - to a fresh record high today - following the announcement of the BJP’s victories in three state elections is perhaps an indication that investors are confident that... 8th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think US equities will keep shining the brightest As the year draws to a close, this note looks back at the recent performance of stock markets across the world and lays out our view of what might happen next year. In short, US equities have largely... 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks markets still likely to face a few potholes While government bond yields continue to plunge and the main euro-zone equity index has risen to a new high, the rally in US equities has stalled over recent days and the dollar recovered some ground... 6th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of latest sector performance in the S&P 500 Although the relative performance of the three “big-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 has underwhelmed recently, we suspect that they will be at, or near, the front of the pack again in 2024. 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read