UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Despite renewed inflation concerns pushing interest rate expectations and gilt yields higher, our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year makes us think that the markets are... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will deliver a bit more policy rate cuts... 28th February 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update We think European equities will keep playing catch-up We expect strong returns from European equities in the next couple of years, but we think they will continue to underperform those in the US. 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What is behind the narrow equity rally? While enthusiasm over AI probably explains much of the “Magnificent Seven’s” outperformance in the US, the outperformance of the largest stocks in other markets is indicative of a broader shift in... 27th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EM Asian equities’ comeback may be just the start Equities in Emerging Asia have outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks, and we think that they’ll keep doing well during the rest of the year. 26th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Good mood in non-US equities may continue to build up While we think that American exceptionalism in stock markets will continue this year as a bubble fuelled by enthusiasm around AI keeps inflating, we expect equities in other developed markets (DM) to... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are bonds and stocks to a Trump 2.0? The recent back-up in long-term Treasury yields, reflecting concerns that inflation isn’t coming down fast enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates in the near future, raises the question of how much... 22nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Markets Update What’s unusual about this bubble and whether it matters Unlike most bubbles, this one hasn’t been accompanied, at least so far, by obvious signs of high and rising leverage. On the other hand, the share of funds invested in ‘passive’ products is now much... 20th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Can the party keep going for Japan’s equities? We think Japan’s stock market will take a turn for the worse before long, weighed by what we expect will be a rebound in the yen. And while that nonetheless could mean decent returns in US dollar... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Another good year could be in store for India’s markets We expect India’s stocks, bonds, and currency to rally over the remainder of this year. In view of the broader interest, we are sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our Asset Allocation... 16th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing US economy may help Treasuries rally Weaker economic data from the US have bolstered our view that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates by more than investors currently expect. As a result, we continue to think that Treasury... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb. 2024) Capital inflows into EM bonds and equities have fallen sharply since January after the Fed pushed back expectations of the timing of rate cuts. The good news is that current account deficits in EMs... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation surprise unlikely to derail AI bubble for long Today’s hotter-than-expected US inflation data makes for another bump in the road for US bond and equity markets. But we think a full-scale return to the bad old days of the 2021-23 inflation scare is... 13th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily This bubble may be far from bursting The ways things are going, our upbeat forecast for the S&P 500 of 5,500 at the end of this year may be realised in a matter of months. We doubt the rally would end there, though. Admittedly, we might... 12th February 2024 · 5 mins read