DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (March 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets have kept rising so far this year, even as “safe” asset yields have rebounded. While risky asset valuations are quite high by past standards, we doubt this will... 21st March 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How the Fed might – or might not – affect the markets Our view that Treasury yields will fall back a bit and that the US dollar will generally weaken by the end of the year rests on the assumption that the Fed will deliver more rate cuts than currently... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – What to expect from equities, bonds and FX markets 1713362400 Our markets team recently held an online briefing all about how we expect global equities, bonds, and currencies to perform through the end of this year and into 2025.
Global Markets Update Credit spreads during equity bubbles: how low, how long? Credit spreads aren’t bound to fall further if a bubble continues to inflate in the stock market, judging by what happened in the US in the second half of the 1990s. 19th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What follows negative interest rates for Japan’s markets? The Bank of Japan ended its eight-year run of negative interest rates today . We think there are several implications for Japanese – and global – financial markets. 19th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will the equity risk premium disappear? Given our view that a stock market bubble will inflate in the US, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the equity risk premium (ERP) shrinking further in the near term. This might even go as far as the... 18th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: China equities outlook – Valuations, earnings, fracturing 1712217600 It's been a tough few years for China's stock market, which has been, at times, one of the worst performers in the world.
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest... 18th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Springtime across markets; too good to be true? The past few months have seen risk premia compress across most financial markets, and stress across core financial markets appears lower than at any point since mid-2021. While some lingering risks... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus Are China's equities finally set for a lasting rally? This Global Markets Focus looks at whether Chinese equities’ recent rally heralds the start of something larger and more sustained. It argues that they could continue to do well over the next year or... 15th March 2024 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Consumer confidence and the stock market It is no surprise that the confidence of US consumers is closely aligned to the health of the stock market these days. After all, the share of households that own equities is the highest in at least... 14th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds likely to persist for LatAm equities and FX Most major equity markets and currencies in Latin America have lagged those in other regions since the start of the year, and we expect their underperformance to continue for some time. 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Revisiting the link between US labour and stock markets Today’s favourable reaction in financial markets to February’s US Employment Report probably reflects the inflation-friendly news of softer-than-expected growth in average hourly earnings amid mixed... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Three lessons from China’s Two Sessions We think there are three key points for investors to note from today’s announcements at the National People’s Congress annual “Two Sessions”, where the country’s authorities, among other things, have... 5th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily This bubble doesn’t need rate cuts We don’t think Fed rate cuts are a necessary condition for the stock market bubble to inflate further. After all, most measures of equity risk premia have scope to fall as hype around AI grows. 4th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most 'risky' assets fared well this month, with resilient economic activity helping to... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read