Capital Daily Will valuations hinder AI-related stocks’ performance? Stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings from Nvidia have extended this week’s relief rally in stock markets. While we think that US equities could falter over the rest of the year as growth disappoints, we... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of LatAm equities may be set to end Equities in Latin America have generally returned more than those in the rest of the world so far this year for US dollar-based investors willing to shoulder the currency risk. We think that is set to... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Still far from an unsustainable US stock market valuation Although the US stock market has started to come under pressure from rising Treasury yields, the valuation of equities relative to government bonds is still a long way from being as stretched as it... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the IT sector’s recent stumble The S&P 500 IT sector has struggled this month amid rising bond yields and waning enthusiasm for AI. While we think the sector may fall further this year in absolute terms, we still project it to... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What China’s grim economic picture means for its markets With the headwinds growing for China’s economy, we think its equity markets will struggle, its 10-year yield will continue to fall and its currency won’t rebound as quickly as we’d thought. In view of... 17th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What Country Garden wilting means for China’s equities We don’t think the ongoing troubles in China’s property sector mark the beginnings of a financial crisis, but do expect them to be a drag on returns from the country’s stock market over time. 14th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What the bond market swings could mean for equities The big swings in Treasury yields recently have sent some ripples through the US stock market. This Update sets out how we think this will continue to play out, for the equity market as a whole and... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Falling US inflation may continue to benefit “safe” assets We think disinflationary pressures will help the Fed pivot to rate cuts sooner than investors expect, giving a boost to “safe” assets this year and next. 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Summer vibes across most markets, but will they last? Since our last Financial Market Stress Monitor on 13th May, strains have continued to ease. This abbreviated Stress Monitor takes stock of developments since then. Overall, stress across core... 10th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think oil’s muted impact on markets will continue Despite oil prices hitting new year-to-date highs, other factors seem to be dominating the effect of rising oil prices on equity, bond, and FX markets. Even if, as we expect, oil prices edge lower... 9th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A brighter future for banks may require one for the economy The share prices of US banks have recovered some ground since a low point in May, as concerns about further failures in the industry have abated; Treasury yields have rebounded; and the economy has... 8th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Soft landing tailwind for “risky” assets may fade We suspect the boost to “risky” assets from the resilience of the economy may have mostly run its course. 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of El Niño for global markets We think El Niño poses downside risks to the prices of emerging market assets, in general. But even if the effect in aggregate wasn’t all that large, there are several vulnerable sectors where such an... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Risky” assets may face a harder road to further gains Some measures of market risk premia have become quite low, suggesting to us that the bar for further big gains in risky assets has risen. 1st August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 23) China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of slipping into a recession. We think policymakers will provide enough stimulus to avoid this and deliver a modest... 31st July 2023 · 1 min read