Capital Daily China’s equities may be ready to outperform the US We expect China’s equities to fare better than those in the US in the near term. 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus How we think the outlook for EM equities stacks up We think emerging market equities in Asia will outperform those in EMEA and Latin America over the next couple of years, although we doubt they’ll do better than developed market equities. In view of... 15th September 2023 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for the S&P 500, US Treasuries, and the dollar We’ve revised up our projections for the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield, but still expect both to fall a bit by the end of this year. We have also tweaked our forecast for the US dollar. 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EZ assets may underperform amid “higher for longer” We think that the ECB is more likely than the Fed to keep rates “higher for longer”, even as the euro-zone heads for a recession. That is one reason why we expect core euro-zone bond yields to fall by... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What further disinflation may mean for US equities Although today’s August CPI report was broadly in line with expectations, it provided further evidence that underlying inflation in the US is coming down even as the economy there weathers the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Focus Soft landings, immaculate disinflation, and US equities A “soft landing” for the economy in the US seems increasingly possible, so we look back at previous similar episodes to get an idea of what might be ahead for equities there. 7th September 2023 · 12 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US stock market patterns and the economic outlook Recent patterns in the US stock market are sending mixed signals about the extent to which investors are braced for an economic downturn. Our own view is that equities will struggle to make more... 7th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s equities may step down from the spotlight soon We doubt the strong gains in Japan’s equity market this year mark the start of a significant reversal of its decades-long underperformance; we expect it to lag the US market over the next couple of... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another false dawn for China’s markets? New measures to support China’s struggling property sector seem to have sparked some renewed optimism in the country’s financial markets. We think there are three points to note. 4th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are Chinese AI stocks about to take off? We think China’s AI-related stocks may outperform their US counterparts over the rest of this year. But their longer-term prospects look less upbeat, to us. 31st August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although we’re growing less convinced by the idea that the US economy will tip into... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in most advanced economies will disappoint later this year, putting pressure on... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is there much scope for the S&P 500 to build on its gains? We think there is ample scope for the US stock market to perform strongly in 2024 and 2025. Admittedly, this year’s rally in the S&P 500 hasn’t had much to do with expectations of faster growth in... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of a downward spiral. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) We’ve become a bit more confident in our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 5.25% now to a peak of 5.50%, rather than much further, as higher interest rates appear to be... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Equities in EM Asia ex-China may keep holding up well Equities in Emerging Asia outside China have largely outperformed their peers in other Emerging Markets (EMs) since the pandemic started. We think that they will hold up better during the global stock... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read