Capital Daily Fed – not the Middle East – still the bigger worry for markets Financial markets have, so far, taken the latest escalation in the Middle East over the weekend largely in stride. Our sense remains that, absent an even larger conflagration that disrupts energy... 15th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Higher yields might not stop value underperforming growth We think ‘value’ stocks will generally underperform their ‘growth’ counterparts while a bubble in the US stock market continues to inflate, even if Treasury yields don’t drop back in the way that we... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The causes, consequences, and future of the Treasury sell-off We don’t expect the tough times to last for Treasuries. But although their woes so far have coincided with big gains in the stock market (at least until very recently) we don’t think a recovery in... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How big a threat is inflation to US equities? Today’s slump in S&P 500, following the release of a hotter-than-expected US CPI report for March, underscores the US stock market’s vulnerability to disappointing news on inflation. (See Chart 1.)... 10th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Tough times for Japanese equities may not last We expect Japanese equities to do quite well this year, as hype around artificial intelligence proves a more powerful catalyst than the headwind we anticipate from a stronger yen. 8th April 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Indian bulls rage while elephants go for a walk Positive news on India's economy continues to roll in and that is being reflected in the performance of the stock market. But amid the optimism, this week we published an in-depth report highlighting... 5th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in an equity bubble We expect equities to outperform most other assets as an AI-fuelled bubble continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we... 4th April 2024 · 29 mins read
Capital Daily One boat the rising tide of optimism is failing to lift While a rising tide of optimism has lifted most boats in the US stock market so far this year, real estate is the notable exception. That may change if, as we anticipate, the 10-year Treasury yield... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the India/China equity market narrative shifting? We think China’s equities could fare better than those in India in the near term. Note: We will be discussing the outlook for Chinese equities in a special 20-minute online briefing on Thursday 4th... 3rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent easing in price pressures and the Bank of England's new-found dovish slant has convinced investors that interest rates will be cut a bit further over the next two years. But we still think... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will rising Treasury yields keep equities down? The sharp rise in Treasury yields this week has probably contributed to the sell-off in US equities, but it isn’t the only factor. And even if Treasury yields remain high, we doubt that would prevent... 2nd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Q2 could be a good one for equities and bonds Equities have enjoyed another strong quarter and, while a lot of good news is priced in, we think they can extend their winning streak. Sovereign bonds have, by contrast, struggled over Q1; but we... 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Will a rising tide continue to lift all the S&P 500’s boats? We wouldn’t be surprised if the “non-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 continued to make gains over the rest of 2024, but we don’t expect them to keep pace with the tech giants as well as they have lately... 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities may keep doing well, but not outperform While we think that equities in the UK will continue to rise over the next couple of years, we suspect they will keep underperforming those in the US, and we see little scope for valuations to help... 26th March 2024 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and the latest data... 26th March 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The doves have it – what next for markets? This week’s flurry of central bank meeting points to growing confidence among policymakers in most major economies that inflation is on track back to target. That supports our view that long-term... 21st March 2024 · 5 mins read