Global Markets Update How the timing of rate cuts could affect bond yields We think that sovereign bond yields in most major economies will generally reach their troughs around the same time over the next year or so. But with the Bank of Japan seemingly set to buck the trend... 6th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks markets still likely to face a few potholes While government bond yields continue to plunge and the main euro-zone equity index has risen to a new high, the rally in US equities has stalled over recent days and the dollar recovered some ground... 6th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2023) Inflows into EM bond and equity markets have picked up over the past month, particularly in Turkey where optimism around the policy U-turn seems to be building. Capital flows into EMs may be bumpy in... 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The Treasury yield curve could “disinvert” next year We expect the Treasury yield curve to “disinvert” in 2024, as we think the Fed will cut rates by more than investors expect and term premia will remain at least as high as they are now. 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How German and Swiss bond yields may measure up Although the spread between the 10-year German and Swiss government bond yields has widened significantly over the past couple of years, we think it will stay close to this level for a long while yet. 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt oil prices will impact the Treasury rally Oil prices have seemingly had little spillover to other financial markets over recent months, and we don’t think anything from the latest OPEC+ meeting is likely to prevent a further rally in US... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our View: We are more dovish than investors regarding the amount of rate cuts that the Fed... 30th November 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Both "safe" and "risky" assets have generally notched up strong returns this month. We... 30th November 2023 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update NZ bond yields’ divergence from other DMs may be over We think that long-term sovereign bond yields in New Zealand – which are currently among the highest in the developed world – will fall back to similar levels as those elsewhere over the next couple... 30th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may fall by less than Treasury yields next year While we think both yields will fall next year, we expect a smaller drop in the yield of 10-year Bunds than in that of 10-year Treasuries. 29th November 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China to buck the trend of rising equilibrium rates In much of the world, interest rates are likely to settle at higher levels than was the case prior to the pandemic. But China is a key exception, with its shrinking population, slowing productivity... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) The rebound in the activity data in November has convinced investors that the first interest rate cut will happen later, in August next year instead of June. Our view that core inflation will ease... 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update US Treasury yield curve and relative returns We expect 10-year Treasuries to outperform 2-year Treasuries between now and the end of 2024, even though we forecast the 2-year Treasury yield to fall by more than the 10-year Treasury yield in that... 28th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why US equities may continue to outshine corporate bonds Although pull-backs in credit spreads and in the yields of Treasuries have contributed to a strong performance from US corporate bonds in November, they have underperformed US equities regardless so... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curves may normalise next year as rate cuts begin We think that yield curves across Europe and the US will “disinvert” next year, as central banks shift towards easing monetary policy. 24th November 2023 · 4 mins read