Capital Daily How Treasury supply (and demand) might affect yields The US Treasury’s latest borrowing estimates pushed long-dated yields down, and the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on Wednesday may add to positive sentiment. But we think that a poor fiscal... 30th January 2024 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think that the Fed and several other DM central banks will deliver more policy rate cuts... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets are not braced for how far inflation will fall Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year suggests that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% now to 3.00% rather than the low of 3.50-3.75% priced into the market, 10-year gilt... 30th January 2024 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily The best days for US IG corporate bonds may soon be over We think the best days for US investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds will soon be over. 29th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update With cuts almost in sight, we still see scope for DM yields to fall We think the recent falls in long-dated government bond yields across developed market (DM) economies will extend over the remainder of this year, as central banks generally cut by more than investors... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the ECB market fallout While the dovish reaction to today’s ECB meeting came as a bit of a surprise, we continue to think that the direction of travel for Bund yields – and most sovereign bond yields – will be down this... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Would BoJ rate hikes matter for Japan’s bond market? Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stood its ground at its meeting today, we still expect it to hike its policy rate before long; that, we think, could contribute to a higher 10-year JGB yield. 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect China’s markets to stay under pressure for long We project decent near-term gains in China’s equities, think long-dated CGB yields will finish the year around their current levels, and expect the renminbi to rally against the US dollar. In view of... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in Gilt yields and sterling may not last Although Gilt yields remain elevated and sterling resilient, we expect both to fall over the course of 2024 as disinflationary pressures build in the UK. 18th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The hawks are ruling 2024 so far… but not really A hawkish mood has prevailed in markets this year, and comments from the Fed’s Waller today seemed to add fuel to that fire, at least initially. But given how aggressively rate cuts were priced in... 16th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect yield curves to normalise this year Government bond yield curves in the US, Germany, and the UK seem to be once again on the path towards “normalisation”, or “disinversion”, as short-term yields are close to breaking below long-term... 15th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: What to expect from financial markets in 2024 1706108400 Will US equities continue to lead the pack in 2024? How will monetary policymaking affect the level of yields? What will this mean for FX markets?
Capital Daily Weakness in US asset prices unlikely to persist We wouldn’t be surprised if US bonds and equities fell a bit further in the near term. But, in our view, the Fed remains on track to start easing in March, pointing to renewed gains in US asset prices... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Corporate bonds might keep struggling a bit Despite bouncing back a bit in recent days, the spreads of corporate bonds remain near their lowest levels in two years, making them vulnerable to a deterioration in economic conditions. 8th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We see 2024 ending much better than it started for asset markets Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for... 8th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of mixed messages on the US labour market Today’s plunge in the employment component of the US ISM services survey more than took the shine off a slightly stronger than expected US Employment Report. In doing so, it appears to have called at... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read