Capital Daily The yen also rises (finally)? The surge of the Japanese yen ahead of next week’s BoJ policy announcement could still prove yet another false dawn. But with the monetary policy divergence that has driven the yen down over the past... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Revisiting the link between US labour and stock markets Today’s favourable reaction in financial markets to February’s US Employment Report probably reflects the inflation-friendly news of softer-than-expected growth in average hourly earnings amid mixed... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What might move euro-zone bond yields now? We doubt that ECB policy will have much impact on German bond yields this year and next – if anything, risks are skewed to the upside. But the outlook may be a bit brighter for Italian bonds, and we... 7th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily UK fiscal fictions unlikely to prevent lower Gilt yields Today’s UK budget announcement contained no major surprises, leaving our forecast for the 10-year Gilt yield to fall further this year and sterling to struggle against other major currencies intact. 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three lessons from China’s Two Sessions We think there are three key points for investors to note from today’s announcements at the National People’s Congress annual “Two Sessions”, where the country’s authorities, among other things, have... 5th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily This bubble doesn’t need rate cuts We don’t think Fed rate cuts are a necessary condition for the stock market bubble to inflate further. After all, most measures of equity risk premia have scope to fall as hype around AI grows. 4th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are more widows in the making? Today’s rise in the 2-year Japanese government bond yield to its new highest level since 2011 raises the question of whether this is the start of a far bigger sell-off in the bond market, or just... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We see falling PCE inflation weighing on Treasury yields January US PCE inflation is in line with our view that the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation will return to target by mid-year, allowing policymakers to cut rates further than investors seem to... 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most 'risky' assets fared well this month, with resilient economic activity helping to... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Despite renewed inflation concerns pushing interest rate expectations and gilt yields higher, our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year makes us think that the markets are... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will deliver a bit more policy rate cuts... 28th February 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily RBNZ on hold, a positive signal for bond markets? The RBNZ’s decision to keep its policy rate on hold today illustrates how the bar for further rate hikes has become increasingly high for most central banks, even in the face of upside surprises to... 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up slightly our 10-year Treasury yield forecast We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, our new... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are bonds and stocks to a Trump 2.0? The recent back-up in long-term Treasury yields, reflecting concerns that inflation isn’t coming down fast enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates in the near future, raises the question of how much... 22nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read