Capital Daily What to make of the recent relief rally The rebound across major bond, equity, and currency markets over recent days provides a bit of relief for investors after a torrid few weeks. But we doubt that it will prove the start of a sustained... 26th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Market strains create new dilemmas for central banks As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack A period of calm after the storm The reversal of Truss/Kwarteng’s fiscal policies and Rishi Sunak’s appointment as the UK’s new Prime Minister has ushered in a period of calm in UK financial markets after the recent storm. Indeed... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets may continue to shrug off China’s struggles Recent events in China arguably present some downside risks to our forecasts for global equities and bond yields. But we do not think that they necessarily signal a repeat of the “China hard landing”... 25th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Unpacking the fall in the valuation of the UK stock market Despite stabilising a bit recently, the valuation of UK mid- and large-cap equities in general has fallen recently in both absolute terms and relative to comparable indices elsewhere. While that doesn... 25th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will PM Sunak usher in a period of calm after the storm? Given all the turbulence in the UK’s government bond market over the past month or so, the limited reaction to today’s news that Rishi Sunak will be its next prime minister (PM) may seem surprising... 24th October 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The “Fed Whisperer” & MoF strike again, dropping the dollar The dollar looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies after an article today by the WSJ’s often well-informed Fed reporter, Nick Timiraos, suggesting some FOMC officials favour a... 21st October 2022 · 10 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Relative resilience of EM equity valuations could fade We don’t think the valuations of emerging market equities will continue to hold up better than those in developed markets if, as we expect, the global economy slips into recession. 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the relative fortunes of China’s stock markets China’s stock markets have fallen by more than most this week, and indeed over this year so far. But the country’s onshore equities have generally proven more resilient than their offshore... 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s protests three years on, COP drop This week marked the third anniversary of a large wave of protests in Chile which set in motion a shift towards looser fiscal policy, have left the political landscape difficult to navigate and caused... 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee weakness is not a big macro concern The rupee has this week continued its slide against the US dollar, dropping to a record low of 83/$ on Thursday. As has been the case over the past few months, this has been the trigger for a series... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily PM’s resignation not a panacea for UK markets UK markets have, on balance, not moved much in response to news of PM Truss’ resignation. We suspect that investors need more visibility on Truss’s successor and the implications for fiscal policy... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Will the UK’s new PM still be faced with a risk premium? Although the extra risk premia on the UK’s sovereign bonds and currency that emerged in the wake of the UK’s “mini”-budget have partly unwound, this doesn’t necessarily mean Gilts and sterling are set... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update We expect mediocre long-run returns from Chinese equities Although relatively low equity valuations sometimes point to a greater chance of outsized returns over longer time horizons, we do not think that this is the case for China’s stock market. After all... 20th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: China’s Congress, more yen weakness, hawkish central banks and more 1666857600 Economists from across our Asia teams were online for this 20-minute briefing on the region’s big investment stories.
