China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt China’s stock market will go from strength to strength We don’t think that the recent rally in China’s stock market sets the stage for extensive gains over the new few years. 27th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM assets & the risks from tighter DM monetary policy We doubt that aggressive policy tightening by developed market (DM) central banks will be followed by a series of financial crises in major emerging market (EM) economies in the way that it has at... 27th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Thai economy to receive tourism boost After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily A stock market rebound makes little sense if a recession is nigh The proximate cause of this week’s tentative rebound in the S&P 500 appears to have been a pull-back in Treasury yields. Yet their retreat has reflected concerns that the Fed will drive the economy... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We think the dollar rally has paused, not ended Amid mounting concerns about the global growth outlook as more central banks raised policy rates, the US dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. Although we... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Answering your questions on our market forecasts We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Revising down our forecasts for riskier currencies With the outlook for the global economy worsening further and the Fed still on the war path, we have revised down our forecasts for many G10 “high-beta” currencies and several EM currencies. Asia Drop... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect long-dated Treasury yields to resume their rise While the yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen sharply in recent days, we doubt it has already passed its peak. 23rd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilts to struggle sooner, equities to struggle for longer We haven’t changed our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 1.25% now to a peak of 3.00% by the middle of next year. But we do now think that a number of other central... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Revisiting the case for US bank equity outperformance The prospect of weaker economic growth has reduced the appeal of US banks’ equities, even though they may yet benefit from a renewed rise in long-dated Treasury yields and still appear relatively... 23rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We still think the backdrop is favourable for the US dollar Although it has fallen back a little recently, we continue to think the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies as global economic growth disappoints. Asia Drop-In (30 th June, 09:00... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think headwinds to sterling are growing We expect the pound to weaken further against the US dollar over the rest of 2022 as the BoE fails to keep pace with the Fed’s tightening cycle and appetite for risk continues to weaken. 22nd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We now expect higher and earlier peaks in bond yields We now think that the yields of 10-year developed market government bonds will peak earlier and, in some cases, at higher levels than we previously expected. That reflects a view that tightening... 22nd June 2022 · 4 mins read
