Capital Daily Euro and euro-zone assets likely to remain under pressure Euro-zone assets and the euro have come under significant pressure recently as concerns about Europe’s energy supplies have intensified. While we think it would take a significant further... 5th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market and metals prices may continue to diverge We think that the recent divergence between the fortunes of China’s stock market and the prices of most industrial metals will continue, albeit with the former seeing renewed falls and the latter... 4th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for US equities and Treasuries We don’t expect US equities and Treasuries to fare well in the second half of this year after their torrid performance in the first six months of 2022. 1st July 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Safe-haven flows drive the dollar higher The US dollar looks set to end the week stronger against most major currencies, nearing its strongest level since 2002 as “risky” assets remained under pressure. A key reason for the dollar’s rally is... 1st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Corporate FX debt risks in Turkey, EU fund hopes Recent plans announced by the Turkish authorities to restrict access to lira-denominated loans to corporates with large FX holdings add to the growing risks stemming from corporates' large FX debts... 1st July 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Central bank put still missing in action Despite renewed falls in equity markets and broadening signs that investors are bracing for a major slowdown in the global economy, most central banks appear determined to press ahead with the most... 30th June 2022 · 7 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM assets will remain under pressure We expect the yields of emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) and dollar sovereign bonds to rise further and EM equities to lose more ground as “risk-free” rates continue to climb and global... 30th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hawkish shift creates difficult environment for Africa The hawkish turn by DM central banks over the past month has further soured investor risk appetite, and capital inflows into African economies are likely to have slowed. Countries with large external... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the US dollar to continue trending higher While the strength of the US dollar already reflects expectations that the Fed will continue its aggressive policy tightening, we think that disappointing global growth and weak risk sentiment will... 30th June 2022 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Mounting growth concerns leave few places to hide The period since the publication of our last Asset Allocation Chart Book on 31 st May has brought yet more pain for investors. Between then and 28 th June, the returns from all the headline indices... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of the falls in commodity prices We think further falls in commodity prices will contribute to continued underperformance of commodity-heavy parts of the global equity market, but won’t prevent government bond yields from rising to... 29th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Tightening cycles still have some way to go Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence... 29th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Tight labour market pushing up wages The tight labour market is putting upward pressure on wages, with the Labour Force Survey showing a strong 1.0% m/m rise in average hourly earnings in May. While the annual rate of wage growth, at 3.9... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect even higher yields and lower risky asset prices We think developed market government bond yields will rise further while equity and corporate bond prices fall further, as central banks press ahead with tightening and the global economy slows. Drop... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in long-dated Bund yields may have further to run While we expect the recent rise in the yield of 10-year German Bunds to continue between now and the end of 2022, we think there is a significant risk that the recent calm in euro-zone “peripheral”... 28th June 2022 · 5 mins read
