FX Markets Outlook Probably approaching the final stage of the dollar rally While the dollar has now reached a 20-year high and looks increasingly overvalued on a long-term basis, we think it will rise further in the near term as the global economy falls into recession and... 2nd November 2022 · 24 mins read
Capital Daily A weak economy may matter most for sector performance The turnaround in the US stock market since 14th October has coincided with a retreat in Treasury yields. Nonetheless, two of its three “long-duration” sectors have lagged amid disappointing news on... 1st November 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Bonds may outperform equities amid a global recession After moving in broadly the same direction for much of 2022, we think that the returns from “safe” assets will generally diverge from those from “risky” assets between now and around the middle of... 1st November 2022 · 25 mins read
China Chart Pack Xi’s third term starts with COVID quarantines surging On some measures China’s current COVID situation is about as bad as it has ever been. While far fewer infections are being found daily than at the peak of the Omicron wave, new cases are... 1st November 2022 · 11 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yield Curve Control not on its way out The Bank of Japan’s renewed difficulties in defending its 10-year yield target have prompted fresh speculation that it may abandon Yield Curve Control. However, neither concerns about the functioning... 1st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil’s markets could come under pressure before long We suspect investors are a bit too optimistic about the outlook for Brazil’s public finances, and as such its financial markets may come under pressure before too long. 31st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: What will follow the Bank of England’s “forceful” hike? 1667401200 Economists from our UK Economics team held a briefing ahead of the MPC’s November meeting to discuss why we think that rates will rise further than most analysts are expecting and the conditions th
Africa Chart Pack Here comes the slowdown The past month has brought further signs that economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are in the midst of a slowdown. The latest activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after GDP contracted in Q2... 31st October 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Further pain may be in store for growth stocks, and the S&P 500 We don’t think growth stocks’ relative struggles are over, nor do we expect a further rebound in the broader stock market yet. 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar can climb higher even if the Fed “steps down” The US dollar looks set to end the week lower amid a rally in most riskier assets and currencies, driven in large part by renewed hopes that the Fed and other major central banks will soon slow the... 28th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s tightening election race The second-round of Brazil’s presidential election race on Sunday is looking much closer than had seemed likely a few weeks ago. Lula still appears to be the favourite. But the rising likelihood of a... 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Overvaluation points to USD weakness further ahead Even after the US dollar’s recent pullback, we estimate that the greenback is now more overvalued than it was at its last peak in the early 2000s. This suggests to us that the dollar is set to weaken... 28th October 2022 · 19 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Looming global recession another threat to risky assets We think the recent rallies in government bond markets will gain steam next year as inflationary pressures ease and central banks, especially the Fed, turn less hawkish. But, while rising real yields... 28th October 2022 · 30 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect a big further rally in core EZ government bonds Despite some dovish elements in today’s ECB policy announcement, we still think “core” government bond yields in the euro-zone will stay fairly high even if, as we expect, yields begin to tumble... 27th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt (finally) shifts to flexible pound, secures IMF deal This week ended with a bang as Egypt finally shifted to a more flexible exchange rate and secured an IMF deal. Some short-term economic pain is on the cards, but the move will help to restore macro... 27th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: How will EM economies and markets fare in the global downturn? 1667487600 Economists from our Emerging Markets and Markets teams discussed the outlook for EM financial markets in this regular dive into the big stories in EMs.
