Capital Daily We think the gold price has further to fall While the price of gold has fallen sharply over the past couple of months, including another small decline today, it still appears much higher than its typically strong inverse relationship with the... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The dollar breaks through; more to come? The US dollar has continued to surge this week, with the key EUR/USD rate breaching a two-decade low and approaching the symbolic parity level as fears around Europe’s energy supply worsened. Solid US... 8th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds growing again for US bonds and equities June’s US Employment Report lends support to our forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by more than is currently discounted in markets, pushing up Treasury yields this year. And... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Political risks piling up, rand on the rocks Resurfacing political risks in some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are another threat to recoveries that are already facing multiple headwinds, while at the same time raising the pressure on several... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We think US and EZ corporate spreads will stay high While the largest increases in corporate spreads in the US and the euro-zone may now be behind us, we suspect that a challenging economic backdrop will keep spreads elevated in both places for some... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Hungary falling into a crisis? Hungary’s economy is now under substantial pressure. The forint has slumped and interest rates have been hiked aggressively. The only way through this is to accept the pain of a weak currency and... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equities may underperform bonds if earnings falter As forecasts for corporate earnings in the US finally start to come down amid worries about the outlook for the economy there, this Update considers the implications for equities and bonds. 8th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro nears parity, energy effects erase German surplus The depreciation in the euro to its lowest level in almost two decades against the dollar this week in large part reflects investors’ view that the ECB will tighten less aggressively than the Fed. The... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policy tweaks should provide some relief to rupee New measures to reduce gold imports are unlikely to lead to a substantially narrower current account deficit and support the rupee, not least because the decision to discourage fuel exports will have... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think risks for the euro remain skewed to the downside Our base case is that the euro will weaken a bit further against the US dollar from here, but the balance of risks suggest to us that it could fall well below our current forecast for parity. 7th July 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update What would it take to generate an even stronger US dollar? We forecast a further ~2% appreciation of the trade-weighted US dollar over the rest of this year. But we continue to think that the risks are skewed towards even greater dollar strength. This Update... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Upheaval at No.10 spells fresh trouble for UK assets We suspect that the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, weakness in the pound, and continued trouble for the FTSE 100. In view of... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect DM bond yields to rebound further this year Despite a rebound over the past day or so, 10-year developed market government bond yields have fallen substantially in recent weeks. This has coincided with investors lowering their expectations for... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook More frontloading to come Strong economic growth and surging inflation have prompted the RBI to kick-start its hiking cycle and we think the central bank will continue to frontload policy tightening. In all, we think the repo... 7th July 2022 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of PM Johnson’s possible departure We suspect that, at the margin, the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, a further fall in the pound, and continued weakness in... 6th July 2022 · 7 mins read
