FX Markets Update High carry may not offer much support to EM currencies High carry emerging market (EM) currencies have generally fared better than their low carry counterparts over recent months, but we doubt this will continue. We think currencies in EM Asia will fare... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update EM sovereign bond yields may be nearing their peak Having increased sharply throughout the year, we think that emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields will probably only increase by a little more in the first half of next year, despite a... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Gloomy UK fiscal outlook points to lower yields & weaker sterling The market reaction to today’s UK fiscal announcement has proven rather less eventful than the unfortunate “mini-budget” back in September. But while we think that the worst is over for the UK... 17th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Long-run US equity relative performance and the US dollar We suspect the underperformance of US equities that has accompanied the US dollar’s slump so far this month will become a feature from mid-2023, as the currency eventually comes under sustained... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think CEE currencies have further to fall than most We think that the currencies of Central and Eastern Europe economies will weaken by more than most over the coming quarters, even if we assume that last night’s flashpoint in the war in Ukraine doesn... 16th November 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Negative dollar-oil correlation likely to persist in the short run The negative correlation between the US dollar and the price of oil has reasserted itself in recent months, and we think it will persist as the looming global recession pushes the dollar higher and... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rebound in gold will prove short-lived Despite its recent rally, we think that gold will come under renewed pressure before long amid elevated US real yields. 15th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think recession will derail the equity rally We’re sticking with our view that the equity market rally will go into reverse as the world economy slips into a recession. 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US equity underperformance and a weaker dollar Although we still don’t think the US dollar has peaked, we suspect the underperformance of US equities that accompanied the greenback’s slump last week will be a regular feature when the currency does... 14th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect equities to struggle and the greenback to gain While the soft US October CPI print added fuel to the rally in “risky” assets and weighed further on the US dollar, we aren’t ready to abandon our forecasts for the former to struggle, and the latter... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Soft CPI data derail the dollar amid hopes for a Fed “pivot” The dollar is set to end the week substantially lower, adding today to its broad-based weakness following the softer-than-expected US October CPI report. The data were in line with our view that... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update We still don’t think the dollar has peaked Despite the recent sharp drop in the greenback, we doubt this is the end of the dollar bull market. 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is China’s stock market relatively appealing? The news that the authorities in China plan to “optimise” their response to the pandemic while not abandoning their zero-COVID policy has coincided with a surge in its stock market. There is still a... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Upside surprises to Q3 GDP not a sign of things to come Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather... 11th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update Yield curve control pressure may ease further We don’t expect the 10-year JGB yield to rise above the top of the Bank of Japan’s tolerance band, and think it may even fall back to the middle of that band next year as yields continue to decline... 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Construction cooling, fiscal rules and pivots We think euro-zone financial markets are getting ahead of themselves if they are sensing an imminent “pivot” by the ECB following the lower-than-expected US CPI number released yesterday. Indeed, we... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
