Asset Allocation Update US equities, bonds and earnings recessions We doubt the recent outperformance of equities vis-à-vis government bonds in the US will persist over the next three to six months, given our view that the economy there is heading for a mild... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap “Pivot” hopes keep the dollar on the back foot The US dollar came under renewed pressure and is set to end the week lower against most major currencies. To a large extent, this weakness came in response to surprisingly strong durable goods data... 25th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 25th November 2022 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect bond yields and equities to fall in tandem Most developed market government bonds and equity benchmarks have rallied over the past month or so, but we doubt this twin rally will persist. While we think bond yields will end 2023 lower than they... 25th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Event China Drop-In: zero-COVID at the limits – domestic and global consequences 1669734000 As China's new infection numbers hit a record, its zero-COVID policy is coming under severe strain.
Capital Daily Prospect of rate cuts may drive DM sovereign yields lower in 2023 Despite the lingering uncertainty over how far policy rates will rise in many advanced economies, we expect the economic data to shift the debate towards rate cuts next year, putting more downward... 24th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Still no sign of an earnings recession & why it matters for equities Our view that most stock markets haven’t reached a bottom yet is driven by a conviction that the world economy is slipping into a recession. But if we’re wrong about the outlook for global growth... 23rd November 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the rand’s rally will prove short-lived Despite its strength this month, we think the headwinds facing the South African rand remain in place and expect it to reach fresh lows against the US dollar through the middle of next year. In view... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing global growth likely to weigh more on equities than oil Supply constraints in key oil producers lead us to believe that the price of oil and US equity indices will diverge if, as we expect, the global economy slips into recession. 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Troubles are probably not over for Brazil’s markets The post-election honeymoon period for Brazil’s financial markets has proven short-lived, and we suspect that the country’s equities, bonds, and currency will remain under pressure in coming months. 21st November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think Bund yields will fall by less than Treasury yields Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Fed-speak stabilises the dollar The dollar has recouped a bit of ground this week as Treasury yields have stabilised and the rally in risky assets has stalled, but the greenback remains well below its late September peak. As we... 18th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think euro-zone equities have further to fall Our downbeat economic forecasts for the euro-zone underpin our view that equity markets there will fall further in the coming months. Within the region, we think the downside risks for equity prices... 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What next for BTPs? It might seem surprising that the spread between the yields of 10-year government bonds in debt-laden Italy and Germany has plummeted by more than 50bp over the past month or so, to <190bp, given the... 18th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Missile hits Poland, Hungary close to EU funds deal? The missile that landed in Poland on Tuesday and the subsequent reaction in financial markets serve as clear reminders of the close proximity of Central and Eastern European countries to the war in... 18th November 2022 · 10 mins read
