Global Markets Update Challenges ahead for Brazil’s stock market Brazil’s stock market has fared better than most this year, but we forecast it to fall ~15% over the rest of 2022. And while we expect it to rebound over the following couple of years, we think... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Central bank “pivots” and the recent equity market rally The anticipation of quick reversals of central bank rate hikes has probably supported equity markets of late, but we suspect investors have become overly optimistic and still think equity prices will... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics We doubt the Canadian dollar’s resilience will last much longer The Canadian dollar has held up relatively well against the US dollar so far in 2022, but we think the factors underpinning the loonie’s resilience will fade and push it lower against the greenback... 11th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: PIF steps up investment; CBE rate hike on the cards Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has stepped up investments into Egypt this week that will help to ease external financing concerns. At the same time, electricity rationing will begin next week... 11th August 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Why we don’t think the dollar has peaked yet Although we think the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle is drawing nearer and that yields of long-term US Treasuries have already peaked for this cycle, we don’t believe this necessarily spells the end of... 11th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Falling (headline) inflation doesn’t preclude renewed rises in yields Despite dropping on the signs of a softening in some inflationary pressures, we suspect the yield of 10-year US Treasuries might climb again this year. 10th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Answers to your questions on global markets We held a Drop In yesterday outlining our latest forecasts for global financial markets. This Update answers some questions that we received during that Drop In but didn’t have time to address. In... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Surging unit labour costs are a danger to the US stock market Today’s news that unit labour costs in the US nonfarm business sector grew at a near double-digit annual pace in Q2 2022, as soaring wages interacted with negative productivity growth, hasn’t ruffled... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Credit spreads and excess returns Although the spreads of many “risky” bonds have risen significantly this year, some aren’t currently at levels that have typically been followed by substantial future outperformance of their “safe”... 9th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What the bond market is telling us about inflation US inflation compensation began to unwind its post-FOMC bounce last week, following some hawkish comments from Fed officials and a slump in oil prices. With inflation compensation now some way below... 8th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Output will return to pre-virus trend eventually With a record virus wave sweeping across the country and consumer confidence slumping, we’re slashing our forecast for Q3 consumption growth from 0.8% to 0.2%. While the government has refrained from... 8th August 2022 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We think the worst is yet to come for most risky assets Although we think that we have now passed this cycle’s peak in long-dated US Treasury yields, we still suspect that investors are underestimating just how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest... 5th August 2022 · 24 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rallies as hope for a Fed pivot proves short-lived The huge upside surprise in US payrolls data pushed the greenback higher against most major currencies today in an otherwise quiet week for FX markets. The continued strength of the labour market in... 5th August 2022 · 9 mins read
