UK Economics Weekly Upward revision to market rate expectations overdone While we agree with investors that a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike on 15th September now looks increasingly likely, we think investors have gone too far in pricing in a further 200bps of... 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the risks to vulnerable EM FX Despite the broad-based rebound over the past month or so, we expect deteriorating risk sentiment to put renewed pressure on most emerging market (EM) currencies before long. This Update zeroes in on... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think the rally in the S&P 500 will last Despite its recent resurgence, we still expect the S&P 500 to fall over the remainder of this year. 19th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt short-term yield gaps will weigh on the US dollar Even if short-term nominal yield gaps continue to shift against the US dollar, we don’t expect its rally to abate yet. 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly All eyes on the Central Bank of Egypt The resignation of Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Tarek Amer yesterday has further increased scrutiny of the country’s exchange rate policy. A weaker pound is clearly needed, preferably under an... 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Pound likely to remain under pressure this year We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar. 17th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weighing up the relative prospects for stock market sectors We think the macroeconomic backdrop that we envisage is consistent with certain “defensive” sectors of the S&P 500 – utilities, healthcare and consumer staples – outperforming over the rest of this... 17th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Equity and commodity prices may go their own ways We think equity and commodity prices will generally head in opposite directions over this year and next. It’s been a rough start to the week for many commodities; at the time of writing most were... 17th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities and the renminbi may remain under pressure We expect external and domestic headwinds to keep Chinese equities and the renminbi under pressure over the rest of 2022. 15th August 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar falters on continued risk-on rally The US dollar continued to struggle this week as equity markets extended their rebound and commodity prices also rallied: the currencies of commodity exporters and other economies most exposed to... 12th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA The fact that Kenya’s elections have, so far, proceeded peacefully have supported a rally in the country’s bond market. But with no official results available yet and reports pointing to a tight race... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Harder to see fears of a US slowdown in markets We think that renewed optimism about the US economy – which seems to have gained more traction in financial markets following signs that inflation is easing – is overdone. Our view that the US economy... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal tightening, currencies rebound Hungary's government has reined in the budget deficit much more quickly than had looked likely since April's election, helping to alleviate the large twin deficits. But this presents a major headwind... 12th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inverting to a hurting? Yield curve inversions have a patchy record of predicting recessions in Canada, but they almost always precede a sharp economic slowdown and the unusually deep nature of the current inversion makes it... 12th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q3) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th August 2022 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Not all price pressures are easing There have been growing signs that we are at the turning point in global inflation. Commodity prices and shipping costs are down both in y/y and level terms, while product shortages have alleviated as... 12th August 2022 · 12 mins read
