Capital Daily What’s behind the rise in Treasury yields? US Treasury yields have surged recently, pulling yields elsewhere up, but we doubt they’ll continue their upward march during the rest of 2025. 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) There are increasing signs that interest rate cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Household consumption grew strongly in the third quarter and activity in the housing market has picked up... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How low can Chinese bond yields go? Chinese government bond yields have tumbled in recent weeks and we think that has a bit further to run. This fall in yields, alongside our view that US tariffs will be imposed, help inform our... 6th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Turkey’s 2025 – Will policymakers get the job done? 1736431200 Turkey’s shift back to macro orthodoxy made it a key EM success story last year, with inflation falling, the currency holding up and its financial markets delivering outsized
Capital Daily Dollar rally likely to extend into 2025 The US dollar has started the year on the front foot. We expect that to continue as the US economy and stock market outperform again while the incoming Trump administration brings in tariffs. While US... 3rd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A banner year for the S&P 500 may be followed by another After a stellar 2024, we expect another strong year for US equities in 2025, on the back of continued enthusiasm about AI and US exceptionalism. Meanwhile, we think equities elsewhere will generally... 2nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar ends the year with a bang; more to come in 2025? The FOMC’s hawkish surprise earlier this week has allowed the dollar to break through the top of its post-2022 range, putting it firmly on the front foot going into 2025. With the BoJ and the BoE both... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Is the party really over for US equities? We are sticking to our forecast that the S&P 500 will end next year at 7,000, despite its slump since this week’s FOMC meeting. That’s even though we think Fed policy will be a bit less accommodative... 20th December 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: PBOC promises to restore growth are falling flat China's bond market is sending a message that China's policymakers are unwilling to hear: their policy interventions are not improving the long-run outlook. 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Expect huge divergence in performance between metros We expect there will continue to be major divergence between the winning and losing metros. We think the major markets and tech-centric western markets will continue to fare poorly thanks to low... 19th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Bracing for headwinds Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be... 19th December 2024 · 27 mins read
Capital Daily Pressure on yen from Fed could fade next year We think 2025 will be a better year for the Japanese yen against the US dollar than 2024 has been, as the relative monetary policy picture shifts more decisively in its favour. 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities ignoring struggling economy UK equities have kept up with other non-US ones in recent months despite a string of weak domestic activity data and stubborn inflation pressure. We think they will outperform most non-US markets in... 18th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 18th December 2024 · 0 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Nov. 2024) The decline in housing starts in November was entirely due to weakness in multifamily construction, which outweighed a post-hurricane rebound in single-family construction. The rise in permits to a... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
