Capital Daily We think the post-payroll market jitters are overdone Although today’s news about the US labour market disappointed investors, we think it is in line with higher Treasury yields and a rebound in US stocks. 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar finding a floor post payrolls A week of decidedly mixed economic data has seen the tone shift towards risk-off across financial markets, with safe haven currencies on the front foot and the US dollar staging a bit of a recovery in... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the further fall in wage growth and headline inflation, all but guarantees... 6th September 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update The long arm of the PBOC and prospects for China’s bonds Even though the PBOC is trying to prop up local government bond yields while the Fed is gearing up to cut rates, we think bonds in China will fare a bit better than those in the US. 6th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of yield curve “disinversion” The Treasury yield curve has steepened in recent weeks amid growing recession concerns, but we doubt one will materialise this time. We expect the curve to steepen further over the next year or so... 5th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Risks to the global economy: your questions answered We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update... 5th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Could the stock market ride out a recession? Investors' concerns about the health of the US economy have intensified again, contributing to a selloff in global equity markets. The US stock market rode out an earnings recession last year thanks... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How does S&P 500 sector performance align with the ISM? A disappointingly small rebound in the headline index of the US ISM manufacturing survey for August appears to have put some relative pressure on cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 today, which is down... 3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will the slump in Chinese equities ever end? Chinese equities have tumbled today, and while we see scope for them to recover a bit in the coming months, we are quite pessimistic about their medium-to-long term prospects. 2nd September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What if the Fed and the ECB underdeliver? US and euro-zone inflation data released today did little to change our view that both the Fed and the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp in September, as investors seem to expect. But we think both... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Taking stock of the dollar ahead of payrolls The dollar has rebounded a little this week ahead of next week’s crucial US non-farm payrolls report. The incoming data this week has generally supported our view that the US is on track for a soft... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Weaker-than-expected US data and a dovish shift from the FOMC have led to a sharp fall in interest rate expectations in the US, driving the dollar down as the market turmoil at the start of August has... 30th August 2024 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the rally in developed market government bonds has gone a bit too far and that... 30th August 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (August 2024) We think enthusiasm around AI will return before long and inflate the stock market bubble further over the next year or so, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing... 29th August 2024 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update So what if Nvidia was priced for perfection? The slide in Nvidia’s shares after the release of its latest consensus-beating results bolsters the argument that it was priced for perfection. But that doesn’t mean its party is over, or that the AI... 29th August 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC at the mercy of leadership’s muddled priorities The PBOC appears poised to step up its efforts to prevent bond yields from falling, even though lower borrowing costs would help the economy right now. The inconsistencies in its policy approach are... 29th August 2024 · 6 mins read
