Capital Daily Hawkish Fed may still be a headwind for bonds and stocks With the Fed seemingly still in a hawkish mood, we don’t expect a big rally in Treasuries or equities until next year. 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update REERs suggests need for further adjustment in some EMs While EM real effective exchange rates have held up better than their nominal exchange rates against the dollar since 2021, we think there are some economies where appreciations look stretched, and... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging capital inflows unlikely to be sustained Foreigners’ net purchases of Indian equities have surged to near record levels in recent weeks, helping to fuel the strong rally in the Sensex. We doubt that this can be sustained as global policy... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think risky assets will struggle as optimism fades The rebound in the prices of “risky” assets has stalled recently and we expect it to go into reverse over the rest of this year as economic growth in many major DMs disappoints and appetite for risk... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in EZ bonds unlikely to last, especially in the periphery While we doubt that today’s drop in euro-zone government bond yields will be sustained, we don’t expect “core” yields to increase much from here. In contrast, we still forecast “peripheral” yields to... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect real yields to remain a drag on European currencies A shift in implied real yield gaps between the US and some other developed markets (DMs) have underpinned the latest rise in the greenback. We think the ongoing energy crisis in Europe means that... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update German-Swiss bond yield spread may widen further We expect the spread between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to widen further over the remainder of this year. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: the costs and benefits of a weaker pound We think that the Egyptian pound needs to fall a lot further which, in the near-term, will push up inflation and harm the sovereign debt position. But it will be key to boosting Egypt’s external... 25th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What rate cuts may mean for China’s financial assets We expect the PBOC to follow its recent policy rate cuts with further easing over the months ahead. This informs our decision to lower our forecasts for China’s 10-year government bond yield. But we... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Defensive stock market sectors may continue to outperform Defensive sectors of the S&P 500 have outperformed during its recent slump, a trend which we generally expect to continue. While the S&P 500 has opened broadly flat today, the index has fallen by ~4%... 24th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD parity may become par for the course With the key EUR/USD rate again trading below the symbolic parity level, we think it looks increasingly probable that the euro-zone’s worsening economic woes will lead to a prolonged period of euro... 23rd August 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Central banks beginning to shift focus The growth outlook for the emerging world has taken a turn for the worse. The latest activity data for China suggest that the post-lockdown recovery has lost steam. The PBOC has responded by lowering... 23rd August 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Chinese equities have yet passed their worst A raft of recently announced policy support has not put an end to the struggles of China’s stock market. We think that it will continue to slide, given that the economy faces multiple challenges... 22nd August 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long Australia’s house prices are now falling at a similar rate as they did during the 2017-19 downturn, which was the largest in the country’s modern history. Home sales remain well above pre-pandemic... 22nd August 2022 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar gains on safe-haven demand, fading “pivot” narrative The US dollar rallied sharply this week, regaining most of the ground lost since its mid-July peak as US interest rate expectations rebounded and risk appetite faded. All G10 currencies fell against... 19th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of dividend futures and the outlook for equities Dividend futures prices suggest to us there may be more downside for global equity prices. 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
