Capital Daily Ongoing energy supply concerns could weigh on the euro further The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline strengthens the “stagflationary” headwinds facing euro-zone economies and reinforces our view that the euro is likely to fall further against the... 5th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EZ peripheral spreads will rise further We continue to expect euro-zone “peripheral” spreads to rise over the remainder of the year, owing to a combination of deteriorating appetite for risk, higher policy rates, and ambiguity about the ECB... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Euro under renewed pressure ahead of ECB decision While the dollar eased back a little after today’s US non-farm payrolls report led to a reversal in US interest rate expectations, news that the Nordstream pipeline may not reopen as planned has seen... 2nd September 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury and bund sell off may be mostly over While US and euro-zone 10-year government bond yields have surged over recent weeks, we think this sell-off has mostly run its course – we expect these yields to end this year a bit below their... 2nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Labour force could be over the hill already The ongoing decline in the size of Japan’s adult population won’t look quite so worrying when the recent revival of immigration starts to be factored in. But the underlying trend has worsened over the... 2nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Businesses starting to feel the pain After having previously held up remarkably well, it appears that the prospect of much higher energy prices are now taking their toll on business confidence. The fall in confidence appears consistent... 2nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Asian currencies to remain under pressure We think that continued sluggish growth in China and globally means that the renminbi, and other Asian currencies, will fall a bit further this year. 1st September 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We now expect more weakness in European currencies While the euro, sterling, and most other European currencies have already fallen significantly against the dollar over the past year or so, we now expect them to weaken further over the next twelve... 1st September 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Prospect of more ECB hikes may not push up yields or the euro Even if investors continue to raise their near-term expectations for the ECB deposit rate, we doubt this will push up long-dated euro-zone yields or help the euro recover against the US dollar. 31st August 2022 · 7 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Hawkish central banks may still be still a headwind for EMs We think developed market (DM) monetary policy may be a threat to emerging market (EM) assets for some time yet. Note: Join our EM team on Thursday, 1 st September for their latest monthly online... 31st August 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Focus Rupee to reverse course this decade The Indian rupee has continued its long-run trend of depreciation against the US dollar this year, taking it to a record low of 80/$. It may still weaken further in the near term. However, there are... 31st August 2022 · 17 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Pound to plumb new depths Our forecast that the energy crisis will push the euro-zone and UK economies into recession while the US gets away with a milder slowdown suggests that the euro and the pound will weaken further... 31st August 2022 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 may fall again even if Treasury yields stabilise We suspect that the broad patterns seen in US markets since Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech , i.e. little change in long-dated Treasury yields and lower equities, will persist over the... 30th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We see little chance of a GFC-style collapse in US REITs While we think that US REITs have further to fall over the rest of this year, we doubt that they will fare nearly as badly as they did during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), nor underperform... 30th August 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Powell pushes the US dollar towards fresh highs Th US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher against most major currencies after Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole reinforced the FOMC’s recent pushback against an early “pivot” sent... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus A deep dive into the US stock market’s relative performance In this Focus, we make the case that mid-and large-cap equities in the US will not, in general, continue to outperform those in other developed markets, despite the fact that such outperformance has... 26th August 2022 · 25 mins read
