Asset Allocation Update Is China’s stock market still relatively appealing? The powerful re-opening rally in China’s stock market has eroded a large part of the valuation gap that led us to judge that equities there were relatively appealing a couple of months ago. That said... 18th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar and yen may benefit from weak global economy The latest signs that the US economy is losing momentum seem to have driven a risk-off mood in markets today, with equities struggling and the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen reversing earlier... 18th January 2023 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Global fracturing: India tilts further away from China India has historically remained unaligned geopolitically but we made the case last year that, in a fracturing global economy, it was more likely to lean towards a US-led bloc and away from a China-led... 18th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Yields elsewhere point to a bit more pressure on JGBs We think that the prevailing yields of high-grade 10-year government bonds in other major developed markets support the idea that the 10-year Japanese government bond yield would rise a bit further... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily YCC, rate expectations, and JGBs We think there is a good chance the 10-year JGB yield would rise a lot further than it has already if the BoJ chose to abandon Yield Curve Control (YCC) tomorrow. Nonetheless, we doubt any big... 17th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update How abandoning Yield Curve Control would affect JGBs We think the yield of 10-year Japanese Government Bonds would rise to at least 1% if the Bank of Japan decided to abandon Yield Curve Control, which could conceivably happen as soon as tomorrow. But... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Pouring cold water on the “petroyuan” The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Plunge in credit spreads another sign investors doubt recession While a fall in government bond yields and an improvement in appetite for risk have fuelled a strong start to 2023 by US equities, we doubt they will both remain sources of support in the coming... 16th January 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Yen rally continues as Yield Curve Control circles the drain The US dollar has remained under pressure as hopes of a “soft landing” continue to build and risk sentiment improves. While yesterday’s key US CPI data came out roughly in line with consensus... 13th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Four key points to consider this US earnings season This Update makes four key points about corporate earnings in the US as the Q4 results season gets into swing. They all feed into our view that the S&P 500 will remain under pressure until the spring... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The end of Yield Curve Control could boost the yen further An end to Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy looks increasingly likely, in our view, which could push the yen even higher. 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our financial market forecasts for China We have revised up our forecasts for equities in China, given a brighter outlook for the economy there. We have also increased our China 10-year sovereign bond yield forecast for end-2023, as we think... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update China’s re-opening and currency markets While the medium-term outlook for the renminbi and other Asian currencies has improved, and we have revised some of our forecasts accordingly, we continue to anticipate that a deterioration in risk... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making the case for euro-zone equities While euro-zone equities face some meaningful short-term headwinds which threaten their recent run of outperformance, we still expect them to fare better than US equities over the next couple of years... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recent good news doesn’t preclude DM recessions The past month has brought a string of positive developments on the activity and inflation side. The biggest news has been China’s decision to throw in the towel on its zero-COVID policy, which... 13th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update Investors already seem braced for further falls in inflation Further big falls in inflation seem now to be discounted in major developed markets, especially the US. That helps to underpin our view that high-grade government bond markets will only rally a little... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
