Asset Allocation Update What would a policy shift do for China’s markets? The outlook for China’s economy has deteriorated recently, but it still doesn’t look like the PBOC will ease policy much in response. We suspect that if the central bank were to have a change of heart... 16th September 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Renewed expectations for a hawkish Fed reignite USD rally The US dollar has added to its post-CPI surge, leaving it stronger this week against all major currencies on the back of expectations for even tighter Fed policy and weaker appetite for risk. Although... 16th September 2022 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update What are UK OIS really telling us about future BoE policy? Even more caution than usual should be exercised when using UK overnight indexed swap rates to infer the expected path of Bank Rate over the next couple of years. This is because they have risen by... 15th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What moves in oil prices might mean for markets The recent decline in oil prices has weighed on some equity market indices and come alongside a decline in US inflation compensation, but we don’t think those moves will unwind much even if, as we... 15th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We continue to think sterling will fall along with Gilt yields Although we doubt the latest CPI data out of the UK will prevent the BoE from tightening policy over the next few quarters, we continue to expect Gilt yields to fall back and sterling to grind lower... 14th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Despite price pressures, we still expect Treasury yields to fall Despite the hot US inflation data released earlier today, we still think long-term Treasury yields will eventually fall as disinflationary pressures grow. 13th September 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the yen to reverse course before long We think the yen will strengthen against the US dollar over the next few years, as the headwinds that have driven the currency to multi-decade lows begin to unwind. 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation may not rise, even if oil prices do US inflation compensation has declined over recent weeks as oil prices have fallen back. But this relationship isn’t set in stone and, even if oil prices rise again, inflation compensation may not. 12th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB QT would exacerbate bond market risks Reports that the ECB will soon start debating QT add to the risks facing euro-zone government bond markets. While the Bank could still expand its holdings of peripheral sovereign debt through the PEPP... 12th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How the stock-bond correlation may be shifting We suspect the positive correlation between the prices of US equities and Treasuries may fade over the next year or so, and perhaps turn somewhat negative. 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The greenback edges lower ahead of US CPI data Today’s sell-off in the US dollar has left it little changed against most major currencies since last Friday. The catalysts for today’s decline, from fresh multi-decades highs, seem to be the ongoing... 9th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Are markets really braced for further volatility? Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain... 9th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What the hawkish ECB means for markets A hawkish ECB probably means there’s little respite in sight for euro-zone bonds, but we doubt it will boost the euro. 8th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Brazil’s financial markets to struggle We think a combination of domestic and external factors will push up risk premia in Brazil over the rest of this year. This informs our forecasts that the real will weaken and the country’s bonds will... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think Gilts will rally over the rest of this year We think 10-year Gilts will recover some ground over the rest of this year as investors pare back expectations for tightening. 7th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Aussie dollar may fall further despite RBA hikes Even though we expect the RBA to continue to hike rates aggressively, we don’t think that will stop the Australian dollar from falling further against the US dollar. 6th September 2022 · 6 mins read
