FX Markets Chart Pack We still think safe-haven demand will push up the USD Optimism around China’s rapid re-opening and stronger-than-expected data out of Europe have put continued pressure on the US dollar over the past month or so. In turn, we have revised down our... 26th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We think high-beta DM currencies will continue to underperform “High-beta” developed market currencies have strengthened less against the US dollar than their “low-beta” counterparts despite the rebound in risk sentiment. We expect the former group of currencies... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of UK equities may fade Although we think there is still a decent case for UK equities to continue outperforming those in the US over the next few years, we don’t expect the UK’s stock market to perform significantly better... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus The implications of waning appetite for US Treasuries We forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to decline between now and the end of the year, as inflation eases further and the Fed transitions to monetary loosening. A key risk to this projection, in our... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Update We think equities in Japan will remain under pressure We think equities in Japan will come under renewed pressure in local-currency terms over the coming months, amid an economic slowdown and further strengthening in the yen. 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect gains in euro-zone equities may slow from here Today's PMIs added to a streak of stronger-than-expected economic data in the euro-zone. But much of the good news now appears to be discounted in euro-zone equities, so we expect them to rise at a... 24th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM prospects brighten at the start of the year The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had... 24th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily The euro and relative interest rate expectations We don’t think government bond yield gaps with the US will continue to shift in favour of the euro-zone as they have over recent months, even if the ECB continues hiking after the Fed stops. That will... 23rd January 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap BoJ pushes back while the dollar continues to tread water The US dollar looks set to end the week broadly flat against major currencies after, by recent standards, a quiet week in FX markets. But Wednesday may have offered a glimpse of what is to come over... 20th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Reconciling our latest forecasts for JGBs and the yen Although the 10-year JGB yield has dropped back by about 10bp since the Bank of Japan refrained this week from abandoning Yield Curve Control, we think the yield will rebound when – or quite possibly... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Is this the end of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle? 1674666000 Join Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, and Jonathan Peterson, Senior
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for the US dollar With inflationary pressures easing and the global growth outlook improving, we no longer expect the US dollar to breach its late September peak. But we still think that souring risk appetite... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Rebounding won, Vietnam politics, dovish surprises The rebound in the won is unlikely to be welcomed by the country’s struggling exporters, but will come as a relief to the Bank of Korea, which had become worried that higher import prices would keep... 20th January 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Shift in the US stock-bond correlation might be here to stay We expect the negative correlation between the returns from Treasuries and US equities that followed yesterday’s poor batch of economic data to continue through to the spring, as inflation continues... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The latest on China’s reopening, Asian monetary policy, and markets 1674720000 China’s shift from zero-COVID is the big Asia story of the moment and our economists gave an update on what this means for the region’s growth outlook, including how quickly outbound tourism is rec
FX Markets Update Stronger yen still on the cards despite the BoJ’s obstinance While the Bank of Japan pushed back against expectations that it would end its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy yesterday, we think it is only a matter of time before YCC bites the dust. That suggests... 19th January 2023 · 4 mins read
