Capital Daily Brazil’s markets could come under pressure before long We suspect investors are a bit too optimistic about the outlook for Brazil’s public finances, and as such its financial markets may come under pressure before too long. 31st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: What will follow the Bank of England’s “forceful” hike? 1667401200 Economists from our UK Economics team held a briefing ahead of the MPC’s November meeting to discuss why we think that rates will rise further than most analysts are expecting and the conditions th
Africa Chart Pack Here comes the slowdown The past month has brought further signs that economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are in the midst of a slowdown. The latest activity data out of South Africa suggest that, after GDP contracted in Q2... 31st October 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Further pain may be in store for growth stocks, and the S&P 500 We don’t think growth stocks’ relative struggles are over, nor do we expect a further rebound in the broader stock market yet. 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar can climb higher even if the Fed “steps down” The US dollar looks set to end the week lower amid a rally in most riskier assets and currencies, driven in large part by renewed hopes that the Fed and other major central banks will soon slow the... 28th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s tightening election race The second-round of Brazil’s presidential election race on Sunday is looking much closer than had seemed likely a few weeks ago. Lula still appears to be the favourite. But the rising likelihood of a... 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Overvaluation points to USD weakness further ahead Even after the US dollar’s recent pullback, we estimate that the greenback is now more overvalued than it was at its last peak in the early 2000s. This suggests to us that the dollar is set to weaken... 28th October 2022 · 19 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Looming global recession another threat to risky assets We think the recent rallies in government bond markets will gain steam next year as inflationary pressures ease and central banks, especially the Fed, turn less hawkish. But, while rising real yields... 28th October 2022 · 30 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect a big further rally in core EZ government bonds Despite some dovish elements in today’s ECB policy announcement, we still think “core” government bond yields in the euro-zone will stay fairly high even if, as we expect, yields begin to tumble... 27th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt (finally) shifts to flexible pound, secures IMF deal This week ended with a bang as Egypt finally shifted to a more flexible exchange rate and secured an IMF deal. Some short-term economic pain is on the cards, but the move will help to restore macro... 27th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: How will EM economies and markets fare in the global downturn? 1667487600 Economists from our Emerging Markets and Markets teams discussed the outlook for EM financial markets in this regular dive into the big stories in EMs.
Capital Daily What to make of the recent relief rally The rebound across major bond, equity, and currency markets over recent days provides a bit of relief for investors after a torrid few weeks. But we doubt that it will prove the start of a sustained... 26th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Market strains create new dilemmas for central banks As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack A period of calm after the storm The reversal of Truss/Kwarteng’s fiscal policies and Rishi Sunak’s appointment as the UK’s new Prime Minister has ushered in a period of calm in UK financial markets after the recent storm. Indeed... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets may continue to shrug off China’s struggles Recent events in China arguably present some downside risks to our forecasts for global equities and bond yields. But we do not think that they necessarily signal a repeat of the “China hard landing”... 25th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Unpacking the fall in the valuation of the UK stock market Despite stabilising a bit recently, the valuation of UK mid- and large-cap equities in general has fallen recently in both absolute terms and relative to comparable indices elsewhere. While that doesn... 25th October 2022 · 4 mins read
