Capital Daily Monetary policy and markets in the wake of SVB How the fallout from events so far affects the path of the federal funds rate, and how that interacts with inflation and economic growth, will be crucial, in our view, to how markets evolve over the... 14th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Market to Fed: must try harder Financial markets have a had a rough few days as the rapid collapse of three regional US banks has reawakened the ghosts of 2008. There are three key points to make. 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key questions and answers about SVB This Global Economics Update answers 5 key questions about the fallout from SVB’s collapse. While the situation remains in flux, there are good reasons to think that it does not call into question the... 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: The SVB crisis – What are the risks from here? 1678712400 US authorities intervened on Sunday following the extraordinarily rapid collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week.
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Powell, bank runs & payrolls add to crosswinds in currencies The dollar’s sharp rally after Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony to Congress on Tuesday sent US interest rate expectations soaring now looks like ancient history. Instead, after unexpected turmoil... 10th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the plunge in bond yields US government bond yields have tumbled over the past day or so amid evidence of wage pressures easing in the February US Employment Report and concerns over banking sector risks. As thing stand, we... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: cabinet shuffled, economy shaken This week’s cabinet reshuffle in South Africa is unlikely to be a magic bullet to fix the country’s deepening energy crisis. We think that further pain lies in store for the broader economy, as well... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Struggling rand may face more near-term pain The South African rand has weakened sharply against the US dollar so far this year, markedly underperforming other emerging market (EM) currencies. We expect domestic and global headwinds to drive a... 9th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Some lessons for equities from “stop-go” monetary policy The Fed is clearly trying to avoid a premature easing in financial conditions and a repeat of 1970s-style “stop-go” monetary policy. This Update discusses some lessons from that period for equity... 9th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy and sovereign bond yields in DMs We think long-dated sovereign bond yields will fall over the remainder of this year in the UK and Canada, and to a lesser extent in Australia. 9th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How King Cash may reign over equities & bonds The US may not have a monarchy, but cash has arguably become its proverbial king of investments. If history is a guide, it is a reign that is likely to feature equities underperforming bonds amid a... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the struggles for equities in India will resume We think MSCI’s India Index will fall over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms, amid subdued domestic economic activity and a general deterioration in investors’ appetite for “risky”... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Risky assets largely shrugging off “higher for longer” Most “risky” assets have taken a knock in the past month. But this mainly seems to reflect an adjustment in valuations to higher “risk-free” rates, rather than growing concerns about tighter policy... 8th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Humphrey-Hawkins turns into Helter-Skelter for money markets While the Fed is drawing closer to the end of its tightening cycle, today’s events suggest there may still be few more bumps in the road for financial markets. 7th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market has scope to shrug off slower growth target Even if economic growth in China this year fails to eclipse the modest 5% target announced at the National People’s Congress (NPC) on Sunday, we expect its stock market to continue to recover and... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equity risk premium suggests complacency creeping in Although recent economic data have surprised to the upside, we still think that economic growth in the US will falter later this year. In our view, indicators of the equity risk premium in the US... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
