FX Markets Update Negative dollar-oil correlation likely to persist in the short run The negative correlation between the US dollar and the price of oil has reasserted itself in recent months, and we think it will persist as the looming global recession pushes the dollar higher and... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rebound in gold will prove short-lived Despite its recent rally, we think that gold will come under renewed pressure before long amid elevated US real yields. 15th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We still think recession will derail the equity rally We’re sticking with our view that the equity market rally will go into reverse as the world economy slips into a recession. 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US equity underperformance and a weaker dollar Although we still don’t think the US dollar has peaked, we suspect the underperformance of US equities that accompanied the greenback’s slump last week will be a regular feature when the currency does... 14th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect equities to struggle and the greenback to gain While the soft US October CPI print added fuel to the rally in “risky” assets and weighed further on the US dollar, we aren’t ready to abandon our forecasts for the former to struggle, and the latter... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Soft CPI data derail the dollar amid hopes for a Fed “pivot” The dollar is set to end the week substantially lower, adding today to its broad-based weakness following the softer-than-expected US October CPI report. The data were in line with our view that... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update We still don’t think the dollar has peaked Despite the recent sharp drop in the greenback, we doubt this is the end of the dollar bull market. 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is China’s stock market relatively appealing? The news that the authorities in China plan to “optimise” their response to the pandemic while not abandoning their zero-COVID policy has coincided with a surge in its stock market. There is still a... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Upside surprises to Q3 GDP not a sign of things to come Many of the Q3 GDP releases of early-reporting economies have beaten consensus expectations in the past few weeks, especially in Europe. Not only did energy-crisis-laden Germany grow in Q3, rather... 11th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update Yield curve control pressure may ease further We don’t expect the 10-year JGB yield to rise above the top of the Bank of Japan’s tolerance band, and think it may even fall back to the middle of that band next year as yields continue to decline... 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Construction cooling, fiscal rules and pivots We think euro-zone financial markets are getting ahead of themselves if they are sensing an imminent “pivot” by the ECB following the lower-than-expected US CPI number released yesterday. Indeed, we... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the dual rally in Treasuries and equities will last US Treasuries and equities rallied sharply after US CPI came in softer than expected, but we doubt this dual rally will persist. While we think Treasury yields will fall back further as the Fed... 10th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK HY corporate bonds may not stay bottom of the class We doubt the recent underperformance of UK high-yield corporate bonds relative to those in the euro-zone will continue given the relative outlooks for monetary policy and economic growth. 10th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How far will Hunt’s Autumn Statement go to appease the markets? 1668700800 Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Jonas Goltermann, a senior economist from our Global Markets team, held a client briefing shortly after the Chancellor’s 17th November statement, to discuss his fi
Capital Daily What to make of the mid-terms and the lack of market reaction The inconclusive result from yesterday's US mid-term election has made limited impact on financial markets and, unlike in 2020, we doubt that would change even in the seemingly improbable event that... 9th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The worst may not be over for US big-tech Although US “big-tech” stocks have had a torrid time so far this year, including for much of the past week on net, we think there is still ample scope for the “supersector” in which they reside to... 8th November 2022 · 5 mins read
