Capital Daily Prospect of rate cuts may drive DM sovereign yields lower in 2023 Despite the lingering uncertainty over how far policy rates will rise in many advanced economies, we expect the economic data to shift the debate towards rate cuts next year, putting more downward... 24th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Still no sign of an earnings recession & why it matters for equities Our view that most stock markets haven’t reached a bottom yet is driven by a conviction that the world economy is slipping into a recession. But if we’re wrong about the outlook for global growth... 23rd November 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the rand’s rally will prove short-lived Despite its strength this month, we think the headwinds facing the South African rand remain in place and expect it to reach fresh lows against the US dollar through the middle of next year. In view... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing global growth likely to weigh more on equities than oil Supply constraints in key oil producers lead us to believe that the price of oil and US equity indices will diverge if, as we expect, the global economy slips into recession. 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Troubles are probably not over for Brazil’s markets The post-election honeymoon period for Brazil’s financial markets has proven short-lived, and we suspect that the country’s equities, bonds, and currency will remain under pressure in coming months. 21st November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think Bund yields will fall by less than Treasury yields Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Fed-speak stabilises the dollar The dollar has recouped a bit of ground this week as Treasury yields have stabilised and the rally in risky assets has stalled, but the greenback remains well below its late September peak. As we... 18th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think euro-zone equities have further to fall Our downbeat economic forecasts for the euro-zone underpin our view that equity markets there will fall further in the coming months. Within the region, we think the downside risks for equity prices... 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What next for BTPs? It might seem surprising that the spread between the yields of 10-year government bonds in debt-laden Italy and Germany has plummeted by more than 50bp over the past month or so, to <190bp, given the... 18th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Missile hits Poland, Hungary close to EU funds deal? The missile that landed in Poland on Tuesday and the subsequent reaction in financial markets serve as clear reminders of the close proximity of Central and Eastern European countries to the war in... 18th November 2022 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update High carry may not offer much support to EM currencies High carry emerging market (EM) currencies have generally fared better than their low carry counterparts over recent months, but we doubt this will continue. We think currencies in EM Asia will fare... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update EM sovereign bond yields may be nearing their peak Having increased sharply throughout the year, we think that emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields will probably only increase by a little more in the first half of next year, despite a... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Gloomy UK fiscal outlook points to lower yields & weaker sterling The market reaction to today’s UK fiscal announcement has proven rather less eventful than the unfortunate “mini-budget” back in September. But while we think that the worst is over for the UK... 17th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Long-run US equity relative performance and the US dollar We suspect the underperformance of US equities that has accompanied the US dollar’s slump so far this month will become a feature from mid-2023, as the currency eventually comes under sustained... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think CEE currencies have further to fall than most We think that the currencies of Central and Eastern Europe economies will weaken by more than most over the coming quarters, even if we assume that last night’s flashpoint in the war in Ukraine doesn... 16th November 2022 · 6 mins read
